Sign-up for OwnersBox here and get two free entries + up to $500 of your first deposit matched.
If you’re unfamiliar with OwnersBox, they offer a unique roster format that includes one pitcher, four IF, three OF, and one Super Flex (OF, IF, and P).
Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (10 games) – starts at 1:04 p.m. EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (10 games) – starts 1:05 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
The only game we might have some issues with today is the HOU@MIN matchup as it looks like light rain will loom all game. The question is whether it will be enough to delay or postpone the game and my best meteorologist’s guess at this point is that they get the game in.
Pitching (Main)
This is certainly not the most dynamic Sunday slate of pitchers, but while offense should rule the day there are some intriguing arms on the bump.
Freddy Peralta is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate and for good reason, as he dominated a potent Mets offense in his first start, finishing with 7 strikeouts, 2 hits, and 3 walks in 6 scoreless innings. Today he matches up against Jake Woodford and a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that had scored 3 total runs in the 3 games prior to yesterday’s 6-0 drubbing of Eric Lauer. Peralta did not allow much hard contact against New York (80.9 MPH average exit velocity) and his 32.9 CSW% is a step up from last season. I can see people shying away from starting Peralta against the Cardinals so you should be able to get the best pitcher on the slate at a good ownership point.
You can usually count on Drew Rasmussen to fly under the radar, but combine his excellent first outing with the weak pitching slate and he may be a popular play. But how can you blame everyone? Rasmussen dominated an albeit weak Washington lineup, needing just 66 pitches to toss 6 scoreless innings while allowing just 2 hits and striking out 7. His four-pitch mix is not only difficult to square up but his 15.2% swinging strike rate shows his ability to miss bats as well.
Budding stud Hunter Brown struggled a little in his first start against the Tigers and hopefully, that scares some people away from playing him today. The Twins have scored 36 runs in their 8 games this season, but 27 of those came in 3 games and aside from those outbursts their offense hasn’t been particularly scary. They are just middle of the pack in wRC+ (97) and they are not particularly patient at the plate either (8.8% walk rate). Brown has electric stuff and if he can just dial in his command he could be in for a very nice bounce-back against Minnesota. He certainly comes with an amount of risk but in a slate with such few solid pitching options, sometimes you have to take chances.
Speaking of taking chances, Johan Oviedo gets a less-than-ideal matchup against the White Sox on Sunday. So why are we bringing him up? Because if things break the right way he can provide you with some good value and a ton of salary relief. The 2023 season could not have started any worse for Oviedo as he allowed 3 HRs and 4 ERs in his first inning against the Red Sox on Monday. However, the young righty did an impressive job of settling down and holding Boston scoreless over the next 3.2 innings to allow Pittsburgh to pull ahead in the game. While the White Sox certainly have an intimidating lineup, most of their tough hitters bat from the right side, which is great for Johan. In 2022, the 25-year-old had a 3.56 xFIP and 18.4 K/BB% against RHH compared to a 4.93 xFIP and 5.0 K/BB% against LHH. Oviedo has the stuff to succeed it just really comes down to command for him, which is a chance I am willing to take at his low price point.
Hitting
There are a number of directions you can go with your lineups today but I am actually going to start mine with a team that got absolutely diced up yesterday. The defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies could not figure out rising star Nick Lodolo yesterday when the lefty struck out 12 batters in 7 scoreless innings. The 1-4 hitting brigade of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos went a combined 0-13, although the bottom of the lineup did spark the team to a 9th-inning comeback win. Philadelphia has endured a rough start to its 2023 campaign and they are looking for anything that can help them turn it around. In steps Connor Overton, the soft-tossing righty who allowed 8 hits and 5 ERs to the Chicago Cubs in his first start of the season. I am all in on the Phillies’ studs today as they take out their frustrations on Overton and the lowly Reds.
At this point just keep playing all the Rays you can until they fail because it doesn’t look like it is happening anytime soon. The offense is on an absolute tear, the pitching is sublime and it is looking like they could leave the month of April with fewer than 5 losses. James Kaprielian has had his moments in the MLB but this won’t be one of those moments. The righty’s 4.77 PLV is one of the lowest on the slates and he allowed 7 hits and 5 ERs to the Guardians in his first start. Build your lineup with the right tools from Lowe’s (Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe) and you can’t go wrong with plugging in Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco either, as they are both in the top 10 in baseball in wRC+ so far.
Not going too far out on a limb here, but I am predicting with 100% certainty that Adam Duvall is going to hit a HR off Matthew Boyd today in BOS@DET. In fact, I think there will be a lot of extra-base hits to go around in this matchup between Boyd and Kutter Crawford. Kike Hernandez has always dominated LHP and him and Justin Turner should be ready to rock against Boyd. On the Detroit side, Akil Baddoo and Riley Greene present an interesting tandem at the top of the lineup against Crawford, who was rocked by the Pirates in his first start.
Other bats of note:
- The Brewers struggled against Jordan Montgomery yesterday, but today they get Jake Woodford which should help their offense get back on track. In particular, I like the lefty trio of Jesse Winker, Rowdy Tellez, and Garrett Mitchell to put up some crooked numbers in Milwaukee on Sunday.
- Tyler Wells has somehow pitched well for Baltimore over the last year plus, but I am just not scared of him on the mound. Neither is Aaron Judge, who went 6-10 with 2 HRs off Wells last year and would be as good a bet as any today if you can fit him in your lineup.
Hitter Pricing 4-9-23