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OwnersBox- Main slate (8 games) – starts 7:09 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (8 games) – starts 7:10 PM EDT
Seasonably warm-ish for Coors (wind right-to-left as of this write-up). Winds blowing out a bit for SEA@CHC & LAD@SF.
A quick note on the PLV metric listed above: If you’re curious as to its intricacies, be sure to check out Nick’s primer.
A too-brief summation: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch.
The good news? We get aces for Monday! The bad news? They’re not all on the main slate. The top two options based on PLV are Luis Castillo & Julio Urías. Urias’s K rate is down a little from what we’d like to see for DFS, but he feels safe, and the Giants had some issues with lefty pitching on Sunday. If you’re looking for more K upside, you might consider “Mediocre” Max Scherzer. He didn’t look great in his last start, but the Padres (“Fraudres?”) are striking out more than average and they are on an extended road trip right now. Similarly, José Suarez had a rough time out vs SEA in his last start, but he gets WAS fresh off Coors. Another team continuing on the road are the Dodgers vs Logan Webb. It’s scary to target the Dodgers, but they started to break down a bit vs the Dbacks, and he’s got a ton of talent for his price. While we’re talking about risky upside, it’s worth mentioning Steven Matz. MacKenzie Gore had a solid outing vs COL in Coors, and Matz with his run support could do the same (he also had a nice 7 Ks vs ATL in his last start). COL is currently 28th/30 in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching.
It’s a Coors slate again, so we need to start off with Cards bats. Germán Márquez has started to show some flaws, mainly vs. lefty bats. Unfortunately for him, STL starts off with two – Brendan Donovan & Alec Burleson. Donovan’s GB rate is a bit concerning lately, but Coors is just the environment to “lift one’s spirits.” Obviously, it’s a homecoming game for Nolan Arenado if you have the salary to spare. Jordan Walker has really started crushing the ball with almost a 50% hard contact rate vs R pitching – if you want to do a wrap-around stack with him, Tommy Edman, Donovan, & Burleson, that could be a nice sleeper tournament play. As I mentioned Matz as a sleeper above, not many COL bats interest me in this matchup. The best hitters for COL vs L pitching are actually their lefties, which Matz tends to either strike out or force into ground balls.
Another game that may have some pop to it is CHC-SEA, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Castillo tends to be more of a GB pitcher so he should be OK; on the other side, however, we have Drew Smyly, who is more of a lefty FB pitcher. So far this season, Teoscar Hernández has a 100% FB hit rate vs lefties paired with a 66.7 barrel rate. He’s probably my lock bomb HR pick of the slate. Eugenio Suárez is also a great boom/bust option as he generally crushes the ball or misses—Smyly’s K rate vs righties suggests that may not be a problem. It’s a small sample size, but Cal Raleigh – if he’s in the lineup – also smashes lefties.
Andrew Heaney had a real tough time with the Orioles in his last start. This time he gets the Royals, but they still have two bats to worry about—Franmil Reyes & Salvador Perez (who has really heated up in his last 4 games). MJ Melendez could be a sneaky play as well for his lefty-on-lefty hitting. On the other side, Zack Greinke isn’t scaring anybody. Marcus Semien is starting to turn things around vs. right-handed pitching, and watch to see if Bubba Thompson or Travis Jankowski make the lineup—they can score points in multiple ways as extreme value punts. Nathaniel Lowe is another solid play.
Wade Miley is still hanging around, but unfortunately, his hit balls from righty hitters also hang around with a 60% FB rate. At Chase Field, that could be a problem. Christian Walker has a 50% FB hit rate to match. Evan Longoria is also hanging around, with an impressive 33.3% barrel rate vs L.
Generally, I’m not a fan of Angels vs a lefty, but when that lefty is Patrick Corbin – legendary DFS punching bag – you have to make a couple exceptions. Logan O’Hoppe absolutely crushes left-handed pitching with a 60% hard contact rate and 80% pull rate. Hunter Renfroe has also hit lefties pretty well in his career with multiple teams.
As much as we want a sleeper like Bryce Elder to succeed, PLV suggests he could have some trouble with the Reds, even though they are on the road. A mini Reds stack could be interesting for tournaments- batters who all have better than average LD/FB rates and barrel/HC rates are TJ Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, and Wil Myers.