DFS Daily Breakdown – June 23

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Today’s DFS slate is split in half with a nice six-game early slate (on DK) and a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05. This article will just focus on the main slate, but if you want to talk about the early slate, hit me up because I’ll definitely be playing it! As of this writing, the only weather issues are in Miami, but they have a retractable roof, so that shouldn’t be an issue. This slate features a pitching duel between Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove, as well as more chalk Wander Franco. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

 

Implied Run Totals

 

Looking at the chart, we can see our main stack targets are going to come from the Astros, Yankees, and Athletics. I’m hoping that people are salty about the Astros getting shut down by Orioles’ ace, Jorge Lopez, which would help to keep their rostership percentage down. On the pitching side of things, Trevor Bauer, Joe Musgrove, and Robbie Ray have matchups in which their opponent’s implied run total is below 4.0 runs. There are also three other spots in which the opponent has an implied run total between 4.0 and 4.3. Let’s get into our starting pitchers and see if we can hash this mess out.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Today’s pitching is a little tougher to get through than usual. Our high-priced options, Trevor Bauer ($10,500 DK, $11,000 FD), Joe Musgrove ($9,5oo DK, $7,900 FD), and Trevor Rogers ($9,800 DK, $9,400 FD) all have really tough matchups against the Padres, Dodgers, and Blue Jays, respectively. With that in mind, I included a couple of the other pitchers on this slate into our “comparison” to see if some of the lower-priced options are in consideration for our cash game lineups. Here’s a breakdown of the matchups:

 

Pitching Matchups

 

So, I’m not saying I was wishing for these to be the results, but with wanting to pay up for the big implied run total teams, I was praying that things were pointing towards lower-priced cash game pitchers. I still view Bauer, Musgrove, and Rogers as lower-rostered GPP options, but in cash games, I’m taking a “safety first” approach. Robbie Ray ($9,200 DK, $11,000 FD) is my top choice for my SP1 in cash games. He sports a 31.5% strikeout rate and when you combine his strikeout rate with the Marlins, I love the potential for a 10 K game.

José Urquidy ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD) and James Kaprielian ($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD) serve as both my pivots to Ray as my SP1 and as options for my SP2. Both pitchers are a step down from Ray. Urquidy lacks Ray’s strikeout upside, while Kaprielian has been more prone to issuing free passes. That being said, on a small slate, I like both options in cash games. When I lock in Ray, Urquidy, and chalk Wander Franco ($2,000 DK, $2,500 FD) to a DK lineup, we’re left with $4,386 per position for our stacks.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

As I mentioned earlier, there are only three teams with an implied run total of 5.0 or above—Astros, Yankees, and Athletics. Let’s break down the matchups to see if one of those teams stands out above the others:

 

Matchups Over Last 30 Days

 

I love when things just fall into place. I bet you’re thinking, “But Rich, with an implied run total of 5.9, aren’t the Astros really expensive?” I’m so glad you asked. While the big bats of Yordan Alvarez ($5,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Jose Altuve ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD), and Yuli Gurriel ($4,800 DK, $3,200 FD) are priced up, Michael Brantley ($4,100 DK, $3,500 FD), Chas McCormick ($3,300 DK, $2,600 FD), and Abraham Toro ($2,400 DK, $2,100 FD) remain affordable. I like Carlos Correa also, but I’m filling my short-stop position with Wander Franco.

The Athletics are my second stack today who get a matchup with Mr. Homeritis himself, Mike Foltynewicz. Not even the new Globe Life Park can contain the taters, as Folty has allowed 17 bombs in just 14 starts. Perhaps even more concerning is the strikeout rate that has bottomed out at a career-worst 15.9%. From the A’s my main target is Matt Olson ($5,500 DK, $4,100 FD), but I’m actually good with rostering anyone from 1-9 as they fit in your lineup.

I’m treating the Yankees as a GPP stack as, statistically, they’re the clear third horse in this race. They face Danny Duffy, who has done an excellent job limiting homers and has his strikeout rate all the way up at 28.2%. That’s not to say that the Yankees can’t get to him, but this matchup is less safe than that of the Astros and Athletics.

In case you haven’t been paying attention, I’m playing Wander Franco today. The Rays have a nice matchup against Garrett Richards, so if you want to piece together a little three-man stack to go along with your Astros stack, I don’t mind that at all. Brandon Lowe ($4,500 DK, $3,100 FD) and Ji-Man Choi ($4,200 DK, $2,500 FD) are batting atop the lineup, while Austin Meadows ($5,300 DK, $3,700 FD) is hitting cleanup. All three look like tasty options against Richards.

 

Value Hitters

 

Finally, here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned in the stacks that I noticed when combing through the lineups:

 

Value Plays

 

If you stuck around to the end, here’s what I’m planning on using as my cash game lineup on DK:

 

My DK Cash Lineup

 

That’s a 4-man Astros stack, 3-man Athletics with a one-off Franco.
Good luck today!

 

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Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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