Happy Wednesday! It’s June 1st? Already?! Wow, where has the season gone? At this point, we can start to see some stats normalizing, giving us a better picture of players’ future performance. So, I’ve started adding season statistics for the SP portion. Furthermore, team splits have come into play and will help describe abilities.
For the slate, we’ve got eight games and an abundance of pitching values…which is definitely needed when you look at the salaries of some of the batters. The biggest challenge will be paying up for the correct stack, and finding the correct SPs—although, we have a potential solution with the “Value Hitters” section. There are plenty of one-off cheaper options with some HR potential today.
Baseball is a game of high variance, and today’s as good as any to try something new. Good luck!
Implied Run Totals (IRT)
- SEA @ BAL – The Orioles’ IRT suggests they won’t get to Robbie Ray. Still, he’s lost some luster from last year’s excellence and allowing a .200 ISO vs. RHP. In multi-entry GPPs, they would be an intriguing play for one-offs. Unfortunately, not for stacking purposes. On the other side, Bradish has dismantled left-handed with a 30% K-rate. Although, the amount of hard contact allowed keeps Seattle in play for a stack.
- LAA @ NYY – Both lineups feature missing sluggers with Stanton out for the Yankees and Rendon for the Angels. Furthermore, the salaries are quite inflated and the opposing matchups are bad enough to look the other way. I’d happily snag an elite one-off like Trout, Judge, or Ohtani but not stack from either side.
- CHW @ TOR – It appears that Luis Robert will make his way back to the Chicago lineup. However, when you replace Tim Anderson with Danny Mendick and no Eloy Jiménez, I’m out. The challenging call is if we’d stack Toronto vs. Kopech. I would suggest yes. The underlying metrics suggest Kopech has been somewhat fortunate and ready for regression. Lastly, Toronto is a tad bit under-priced and will help pay a little more for pitching.
- CIN @ BOS – Boston projects for the highest IRT on the slate, and why not? They’re facing an SP allowed more than three HR/9. However, the tricky part will be stacking them because many of them are uber-pricey. For the Reds, they’re facing Garrett Whitlock and he’s been able to stop runs by punching out batters from either side of the plate at a high rate (22% vs. LHP, 29% vs. RHP). That’ll make me want to play one-offs like Joey Votto, rather than stack.
- MIN @ DET – The Tigers are a disaster of an offense. On nearly every day, stacking them will be a waste of money. On the other side, I love stacking the Twins-except in matchups like today. Skubal is working his way to ace-dom and avoiding a stack against him is the smart more. However, if you’re able to stomach it, stacking against Skubal would be a high-leverage play that could pay off very nicely in a larger field GPP.
- MIL @ CHC -The Cubs’ bats are cheap, and they square off against an SP making his 2022 debut. While they aren’t an elite offense, stacking is possible when you consider the conditions. For Milwaukee, Kyle Hendricks is still slipping and what’s really hurting him is the hard contact to left-handed bats. Stack the Brewers today, and push for a nucleus of lefties.
- TBR @ TEX -Tampa is without Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco. That alone will take me off wanting to make them a stack, and turn to one-offs Ji-Man Choi. Personally, I hate stacking against the Rays. They don’t mind pulling the starter early and running a plethora of bullpen arms at a team to grind out a W. Even so, Texas’ low IRT completely puts me on the outs for a stack unless I’m in a large field GPP trying to get very different.
- PIT @ LAD – The Pirates are a weak offense with quite a few Quad-A players. No need to consider them a priority stack. However, the Dodgers are an elite offense. With elite talent comes a massive price tag, which I don’t hate on this slate. Typically, higher-prices stacks get rostered less.
The Green Tier is where the aces live. Both options are in play for cash games, or as you SP1 on DraftKings. On a slate like this, I wouldn’t suggest trying to get cute and roster both. Rather, grab one from here and one from the yellow tier.
- Nestor Cortes has done everything needed to garner his hefty price tag. Among SPs on the slate, his 10.36 K/9 is second. and that’s over a 53 IP sample size. He’ll draw a tougher matchup (vs. LAA) than Ray (@ BAL), so we could see a slight dip in roster% between the two. That makes him my single-entry SP target.
- Robbie Ray is still putting up ace-level numbers. Are they Cy Young caliber? No, not quite. However, he’s putting away batters over 25% of the time. Furthermore, the matchup is extremely enticing as Baltimore is putrid vs. southpaws. On the season, the Orioles strike out 26.2% of the time (third most in MLB) while only putting up an 84 wRC+. He’ll be a chalky SP1, that’s for sure.
This is the land of GPP pitching options. The viable stacks are extremely pricey, and unless you pay down at SP, you’ll never fit it all together. Below are three pay-down options, and heck, you might even need to pluck two from here if you need to go heavy on an elite offense.
- Bailey Ober gets one of the easier matchups on the slate. Detroit is simply not a good offense and showcases a .105 team ISO vs. RHP. And even worse, nearly a 25% K-rate. Of the trio in the yellow tier, I’d expect his roster% to be the lowest.
- Garrett Whitlock is a terrific option for FanDuel players, especially in any single-entry tournament. His price tag is WAY too low, and the peripherals suggest every surface stat is justified. Additionally, he’s facing an offense that is 13% worse than league-average vs. RHP. For DraftKings, you’ll need an SP like Whitlock to make a healthy stack.
- Jeffrey Springs has been spectacular since joining the rotation. He’s limiting walks, and practically no one is going yard against him. Furthermore, when he does allow contact, it’s his on the ground at a 42% clip. The salaries haven’t caught up to Springs’ success and he’s one of the best overall values of the day. I would expect him to be a chalkier option.
- The game could be the pivot point of the slate. If Greene shoves, a lot of lineups will fall. If Boston launches a bunch of fastballs into the bleachers, we could see a position player pitching late. Furthermore, the Reds have a poor bullpen and even if Greene gets the early hook, there’s not much behind him. There are only eight games on the slate, and Boston is easily the top stack for projected scoring.
- Red Sox Sox’ Core Stack Targets: J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Kiké Hernández.
- I referenced Kopech could be due for some regression. What I was referencing was his 0% HR/FB rate, 29% groundball rate, and 4.60 xFIP. Additionally, he’s not even striking out one batter per nine innings. He’s a good pitcher but it’s only a matter of time until he gives up a big day. Who better to do this than a team loaded with HR potential.
- Blue Jays’ Core Stack Targets: George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Teoscar Hernández.
- Stacking against a terrific pitcher never feels great, but you gain a ton of leverage. And in a larger field GPP, we need as much leverage as possible. Skubal has done a much better job of limiting the HRs, specifically against his fastball. However, the problem can rear its ugly head at any moment. Would I put all my eggs in this basket? Certainly not, but if they hit it’ll be a nice payday.
- Twins’ Core Stack Targets: Byron Buxton, Gary Sánchez, and Jorge Polanco.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.