DFS Daily Breakdown – July 26

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Monday.

Happy Monday! Today, both DraftKings and FanDuel feature seven-game main slates starting at 7:05. As of this writing, there don’t appear to be any weather issues in the forecast. Thank goodness, because we’re already working with a tough seven-game slate. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We have just two teams with implied totals below 4.0 runs. Because it’s a short slate, we’re going to have to open up a little when it comes to our pitching options. More on that in a minute. From a stack perspective, the Twins lead the way, with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and White Sox not far behind them. The Phillies and Astros are also just shy of that magic 5.0 implied run total. Let’s take a look at our pitching options to see if we can get anyone to pop for our cash game lineups.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

With just two teams sporting implied totals below 4.0, we have to expand our horizons to find some decent pitchers. I’m pushing my boundaries all the way to 4.5. Let’s break down the matchups:

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

There’s no doubt that I’m locking in Shohei Ohtani ($9,200 DK, $11,000 FD) today. Facing a Rockies team outside of Coors is just too good of a spot. While the Rockies haven’t struck out a ton over the last 30 days, Ohtani has no problem with pulling up the slack with his 31.1% strikeout rate; the highest on the slate.

My initial reaction to the rest of these options is that I don’t have to eliminate any of these arms. All of them are in a relatively decent spot. But for cash games, my first cut is Kyle Hendricks ($9,700 DK, $8,700 FD) due to the strikeout upside—or lack thereof. My next cut is Germán Márquez ($8,400 DK, $10,200 FD) and honestly, it has less to do with Márquez and more to do with his price tag. He and Michael Pineda ($6,900 DK, $6,700 FD) have similar matchups, but with Pineda being $1,500 less on DraftKings, it’s an easy decision to make the cut.

While I like Luis García ($10,400 DK, $10,000 FD) overall, I’m viewing him as the pivot off of Ohtani for GPP purposes. I’m also viewing Wade Miley ($8,600 DK, $9,600 FD) in a similar manner. Miley is in a similar boat as Márquez, where he’s just more expensive than Pineda. If you’re looking to fade Pineda, Miley or Márquez is the move.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

Four teams are going to be my focus in stacks—Twins, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Red Sox. There are also a pair of others I’ll look to add some value from, like the Phillies and Astros. Let’s break down their matchups and see if one stands out over the other:

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

Right off the bat, we can see the White Sox have struggled against lefties and the Astros have hit a rough stretch against righties. No problem, we have plenty of options!

The Twins get a matchup with Matt Manning, who currently sports a 10% strikeout rate through 28 innings thrown. While their lineup has taken a hit with the trading of Nelson Cruz and both Alex Kirilloff and Luis Arraez hitting the IL, they still have some fun bats, especially in the value department. Max Kepler ($3,700 DK, $3,300 FD) sits atop the Twins lineup, while Trevor Larnach ($2,800 DK, $2,700 FD) is projected to land in the cleanup spot.

The Blue Jays and Red Sox make for a fun game stack if you’re creative with your lineup. It’ll be nearly impossible to lock in all of the big bats, but Jarren Duran ($3,000 DK, $2,600 FD) remains cheap while hitting towards the top of the Red Sox lineup. I’m not a huge BvP guy, but it’s really difficult to ignore the active Blue Jays’ .319 ISO against Nick Pivetta. Small sample warning, but Cavan Biggio ($3,500 DK, $2,500 FD) is 4/8 with three extra-base hits against Pivetta.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. I’m taking a page out of my colleague Dave Swan’s (@davithius) book and provided my favorite value play from each position:

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Cash Game Lineup

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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