Happy Wednesday! Today’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features 10 games starting at 7:05. We have a hot and humid day across most of the country, which always has the potential for a pop-up storm. As of this writing, there’s less than a 10% chance of rain in the Diamondbacks/Pirates and Rangers/Cleveland games. Nothing imminent, just something to keep an eye on. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!
This is going to be an interesting slate. There are just three teams with an implied total of 5.0 runs or above – Red Sox, Angels, and Cleveland. However, on a day like today, where it’s hot and humid, the ball should be flying out of stadiums left and right. Hopefully, we can figure out what games those are. On the other side, half the teams on this slate have an implied total of 4.2 runs or below. That’s a total of 10 teams, and while there are some aces on this slate (Giolito, Buehler), I’m not so sure that many low totals are warranted. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.
With there being so many low totals, I’m going to do something unprecedented for myself. I’m going to show the breakdown for every matchup outside of the three teams with totals above 5.0 runs. This will hopefully help us in two spots – identifying cold teams to attack and identifying which teams with low totals could break the slate. Let’s see if we can narrow down our options for our starting pitchers today:
This is a ton to take in. The options are listed in order of their matchup’s implied total. I think it’s fair to say that I’m locking in Edward Cabrera ($5,000 DK, $7,300 FD). He gets a struggling Nats team in his MLB debut, and his strikeout rate in the minors has been incredible. He’s an easy low risk-high reward lock for me.
If you’re looking for a low-priced pivot off Cabrera, look no further than the other side of the field, where Josiah Gray ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD) takes on a Marlins team that is towards the bottom of the league in all of the important categories of late. He also has the strikeout upside to compete with the aces on this slate.
In the high-priced tier, don’t let the Padres scare you off of Walker Buehler ($9,700 DK, $11,300 FD). Their offense has been trending in the wrong direction for two weeks now, while Buehler has been on his game. Since July 10th, Buehler has gone at least 6.0 innings and has given up two runs or less in each start. I’m hoping the matchup against the Padres keeps people away, and we get a lower-rostered Buehler.
Three higher-priced pitchers that I like, but am leaning towards as GPP options are Brandon Woodruff ($10,200 DK, $10,300 FD), Zack Wheeler ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD), and Shohei Ohtani ($8,700 DK, $11,600 FD). All three have the high strikeout upside that we’re looking for, but their matchups are not ideal. I know what you’re thinking, “But Rich, Ohtani faces the Orioles.” You’re not wrong, but over the last week, the O’s have been the best team in the league against right-handed pitching. That’s not to say Ohtani can’t have a good start; it’s just added risk that I’d like to avoid in cash games.
Here are our three teams with implied totals of 5.0 runs or above to add to the previous data. As of this writing, the Orioles do not currently have an announced starting pitcher. Therefore, I’m including the breakdown for both sides of the plate. Let’s check out the matchups:
Unless we find out that the Angels are facing a known pitcher that we can pick on, I’m planning on fading them. The offense just hasn’t been clicking.
Cleveland has been mashing lefties which gets me excited for their matchup against Jake Latz, who’s making his MLB debut. The scouting report on Latz is that he sits low-90s but commands his pitches really well. That doesn’t completely scare me off, Cleveland. There are some really nice values to play in Myles Straw ($2,800 DK, $3,300 FD) and Oscar Mercado ($2,200 DK, $2,400 FD), but if you’re playing Cleveland, the goal is to get to José Ramírez ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD).
My main stack is going to come from the Red Sox, but bear in mind they’re going to be popular. Twins’ starter, Bailey Ober has been hit hard by both sides of the plate as he’s allowed seven homers apiece to lefties and righties. In addition to the big Boston bats, I like Kyle Schwarber ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD) and Alex Verdugo ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD).
From the previous list, the Pirates look really intriguing as a secondary/cheap stack. Over the last week, all of the regular righties have been hitting the ball really well. My plan will be to fill in my open roster spots with Pirates like Bryan Reynolds ($4,200 DK, $3,200 FD), Jacob Stallings ($3,600 DK, $2,400 FD), and Kevin Newman ($3,400 DK, $2,300 FD).
Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate:
If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:
Good luck today!
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)