DFS Daily Breakdown – August 11

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Tonight’s main slate on DraftKings features 11 games, while FanDuel has just 10. The difference between them is that DraftKings has game two of the Mets/Nationals doubleheader. As of this writing, there’s a chance of rain in Baltimore for the Tigers/Orioles game, so keep an eye on that leading up to lock. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

Welp, I know who I want as my SP1 – Kevin Gausman ($9,900 DK, $10,300 FD). Gausman faces the Diamondbacks, who have the lowest total on the slate at 2.9. There are just three other teams with an implied total of 4.0 or less. We have six teams with an implied total of 5.0 runs or more, with seven additional teams at 4.7-4.9 runs. I had a tough time figuring out where to cut off our stack research. With the highest implied total being just 5.5 runs, I wanted to keep our options open. Let’s take a look at some options for our SP2, and then we’ll check out our stacks.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

With Gausman being locked in as our SP1, let’s see if we can narrow down our options for SP2:

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

The only option I’m eliminating here is Frankie Montas, as the Cleveland lineup has picked things up of late. From there, it just depends on if you want to pay up for both of your pitchers or roll with a value option. If you’re going double pay-up, I’d rank them Corbin Burnes ($10,300 DK, $11,000 FD), Adam Wainwright ($9,400 DK, $9,600 FD), and then Alek Manoah ($9,100 DK, $9,400 FD). Burnes certainly has the highest strikeout upside of the three.

On the value front, I prefer Tyler Anderson ($7,600 DK, $7,400 FD) to Spencer Howard ($5.700 DK, $6,400 FD). In his last outing, Howard threw just 2.1 innings and has only reached 4.0 innings once all year. That definitely caps his upside.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

With our hitters, I’m taking the approach of throwing everything (almost) at the wall to see what sticks. With no one team sticking out when it comes to their implied total, I’m hoping some teams pop in our analysis.

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

I love when we can just eliminate options off the bat. The Tigers, Atlanta, Brewers, Giants, Cardinals, Phillies, and Red Sox are behind the remaining teams. I’m not against grabbing value bats from those teams, but I’m not planning on stacking them. Some of my favorites are LaMonte Wade ($3,200 DK, $2,900 FD), Hunter Renfroe ($3,600 DK, $3,300 FD), and Jean Segura ($3,800 DK, $3,200 FD). While the Phillies as a team look like they took a massive dip, that’s based on just 15 plate appearances against lefties.

I was planning on prioritizing the Rays and Reds offenses until I saw they had the “toughest” matchups. That’s not to say they can’t beat Nathan Eovaldi and Touki Toussaint, but with so many options on the slate, I’m not likely to stack them except in GPPs.

If I’m stacking, the Athletics look like they have the best combination of matchup and recent form. They also have a nice combo of pricy hitters in Matt Olson ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD) and Starling Marte ($5,700, $4,000 FD) with values like Mark Canha ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) and Jed Lowrie ($3,700 DK, $3,100 FD).

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate:

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Cash Game Lineup

 

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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