Happy Monday! Today is a travel day in baseball, so we are left with only a five-game slate. With only 10 SPs to choose from, I’ll be narrowing the focus down to five viable options, and we can throw back the rest. Furthermore, we have many clear-cut favorites, which will trim the guide for many stack-building options. Also, the weather could be a massive concern—especially in the Midwest. CIN@CLE and MIL@CHC are in real jeopardy of feeling the weather. If one or both gets PPD, the dichotomy of the slate will flip on its end. Lastly, lock times are an hour earlier than usual, starting at 6:10 pm EST. Isn’t this fun?
Implied Run Totals
The Implied Run Totals (IRT) point to many away teams today, which is interesting. Now, when there is a small slate, the roster% will be condensed heavily. We should expect loads of roster% between CIN, MIL, CWS, NYY, and SD. If you’re looking for spots to stack, that’s an excellent place to start.
With only ten SPs to choose from, it’s best to keep a tight group of choices. However, there are five solid options to build your lineups around. I could see paying down for Jameson Taillon as a terrific option because you’d be saving quite a bit of salary with a decent chance of matching Luis Castillo and Freddy Peralta‘s output. In all likelihood, Taillon will be everyone’s SP2, thus making him very chalky. Do I fear Peralta is still on an innings limit? Absolutely, and it should be a consideration in your builds. That reason makes Castillo my number one SP option.
If you’re in a larger field GPP and want to try and find the two least rostered SPs, it’ll probably be Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito. Both have been spotty at times with command, and Giolito is coming off a terrible clunker. I could see myself using these two SPs to get slightly different from the field while still keeping a solid point total.
Lastly, the slate is tiny, and I don’t think you need to get cute and roster any SP below this list. Play it safer today with the SPs, and find ways to build your stacks with one-off options.
There is so much suspect pitching on the slate; I recommend sticking to two stacks that should smash and filling in with one-offs in good spots. If we are already going to get a little different in SPs anyway, a chalkier stack can pair nicely with them.
Cincinnati Reds (at LHP Sam Hentges)
- The Reds get the bonus of a DH, which makes them my number one stack on the day. Now, because they face off against a southpaw, Jesse Winker becomes a ton less valuable for DFS purposes. I would suggest keeping him out of the stack because he still struggles against LHP. They square off against Sam Hentges, who is allowing .625 SLG% and 1.092 OPS to right-handed bats. That’s going to be the main focus of the stack. Core stack targets: Jonathan India, Nick Castellanos, Tyler Stephenson (at C), and Joey Votto.
Chicago White Sox (at RHP Beau Burrows/Charlie Barnes)
- The White Sox get an opener today, which isn’t a spot I’d usually stack, but we’ve got a small slate, and the salaries are cheap at certain spots. That makes this is a perfect stack if you’re double-tapping high-end SPs like Luis Castillo and Freddy Peralta. Who knows what we will get from the opposing SPs and the rest of the Minnesota bullpen. Also, finally, Luis Robert is back and $3400 on DK/$2000 on FD, which is pretty cheap for a player of his skillset. Core stack targets: Cèsar Hernández, Eloy Jiménez, Yoán Moncada, and Luis Robert.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the “value hitters” or “punt plays” are meant to be players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Due to the slate size, we are stretching the threshold slightly.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)