(Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire)
With the Cardinals sending out Daniel Poncedeleon yesterday, it was Austin Gomber’s to fight for a rotation spot and he sparkled as well with 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks against the Reds. Gomber only went 6.1 no-hit frames (what a loser), and allowed a single + 2-run shot in the seventh to knock him out of the game. I’m a bigger fan of what Gomber brings to the table vs. Poncedeleon, with a fantastic hook, a decent changeup, and a solid heater. The question entering this was if Gomber would need to be stretched out and given his 90 pitches thrown here, I think it’s safe to ignore that moving forward. It’s not clear how the Cardinals rotation will shape up moving forward, but if Gomber gets consistent starts, I can see him acting a solid Toby with a tinge of upside for more. It could bottom out quickly, but that hook itself with good velocity should make him a decent play.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Jose Berrios – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. The curveball is doing amazing things and that’s just wonderful.
Ryan Borucki – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. First Anderson, now Borucki as I second guessed my streamers and got BURNED. Never again y’all. Never again. As for Borucki, he could be a Toby, but I think of him more a decent streaming option and just that. The dude had just four whiffs in 89 pitches, after all.
Masahiro Tanaka – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Mmmmmm this is the start we’ve been waiting for from Tanaka and why he’s in the Top 40. 36/105 CSW as his splitter and slider did so much beautiful work, though he did get a bit fortunate with balls in play. No long balls here and as long as he’s feeling that splitter – he does plenty more than not – he’s a great play moving forward.
Tyler Anderson – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Despite facing the Astros in Colorado, Anderson didn’t skip a beat and continued fantastic stretch, now allowed just 4 ER in his last five starts – four games coming in Coors. His cutter has been incredible, while also boosting its usage about seven points to 33% in these outings. I’m buying this and you’ll see him get a sizeable bump next week, probably to the mid 50s.
Clay Buchholz – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Lots of players returning for the DL here, making for a clear sit against the Cubs and Buchholz didn’t care. His cutter held a solid 10/19 CSW…with 4 fouls and 4 BIP making for 18/19 strikes with the pitch. Wild. 33/94 CSW overall and he’s now a solid stream against the Padres on Sunday. Interesting.
Junior Guerra – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It was a DLH here for Guerra as he faced the Nats and he showed no signs of rust. I think he’s worth the add if you’re hurting for an arm.
Homer Bailey – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Fun fact: Bailey earned a share of the Gallows Pole today with 18 whiffs in this game. Yeah. It’s weird. Weirder is how none of his slider/curveball/changeup eclipsed 4 whiffs on their own as his fastballs earned 10 on their own. He did a fantastic job of owning the down-and-away corner of the zone with all his pitches (save for changeup, but whatever) and I cannot expect this time of precision to stick for another day. Enjoy the Birthday Party.
Gerrit Cole – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Just 14 whiffs in Coors? Come on, you’re slacking. Yes, I’m joking ya’ll.
Roenis Elias – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Five Ks in under 4 frames is always impressive, but that’s where it stops with Elias. He just isn’t very good.
Mike Minor – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeah I’ll take this from Minor. It does nothing to shift me either way, though. So no major shift? I know what you’re trying to do and even I can’t allow it.
Joe Musgrove – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. You want more in the K department, but that’s a lovely start, Musgrove. Please keep acting like a Toby.
Felix Pena – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. You may have ran with Pena here solely because of the strikeout upside. But two strikeouts? Against the ChiSox? That’s not going to cut it as he earned just 7 whiffs and 21 CSW on 84 pitches. That’s not the Pena I want to get behind.
Carlos Rodon – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Hey, this is the most Ks Rodon has had all season, with 6 and 7 strikeout games in his last two. Just 11% whiffs though and only a 52% F-Strike rate make me a little wary of it sticking, though. He’s available in a decent amount of leagues, though, so it may be worth taking a chance if you’re in dire need.
Burch Smith – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Burch is a strike thrower (all three pitches above 50% zone rate!) and I’m a little surprised to see his 11% walk rate on the year. I’m a little tempted to say Blame it on the Tigers but 17 whiffs with that zone rate does make me slightly intrigued. Changeup did decent work here (I even saw a righty-on-righty 2-1 changeup for a whiff!) and maybe, just maybe, this works. I may dive a bit deeper but I was pretty impressed with what I saw. Curveball isn’t a special pitch though, so it will be on the back of that changeup and working effectively high with his four-seamer. We’ll talk again.
Zach Wheeler – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s three Ks and that’s kinda disappointing, but I’ll live with it when it comes with this fine of an ERA and WHIP plus the Mets actually winning a game.
Wei-Yin Chen – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. A PQS from Wei-Yin is the kind of Chen Music that I can get behind. Those smooth smooth hits from the 60s set the vibe just right.
Yonny Chirinos – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Whoaaaa it’s Chirinos! That was a fun time way back in the spring and it’s possible we can get some wind back in these sails. 16 whiffs in 87 pitches is awfully interesting, especially with 9/28 on secondary pitches. He gets the Orioles next over the weekend and the ChiSox after…Yeah I’d definitely consider this if you’re hurting for an arm.
Jeremy Hellickson – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. The Devil gave you nothing today. At least he didn’t burn it all down, but this, well this just isn’t worth your time.
Kyle Hendricks – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. On one hand, it is eight Ks from Hendricks and that’s cool. But you own him for ratios and these ratios? Yeah, I don’t want these ratios. Send em back.
Frankie Montas – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Bleeegh. This stream did pretty much nothing for you. I should have gone with Borucki and trusted my gut. It just knows me, you know? Streaming Record: 59-34. I still wonder if Montas can ripen a bit through the end of the year, but now he’s just a streamer and not a strong roster add.
Aaron Nola – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Aces wanna ace. This isn’t cool Nola, you’re better than this. It doesn’t really hurt your week, but…come on bud.
Yefry Ramírez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s a 25.6% K rate with a 13.4% whiff rate thus far for Yefry in 28.1 IP. He has yet to throw more than five frames though, even if he’s tossing over 90 pitches. There’s a lack of polish to go with his whiffability and that paired with the Orioles being the Orioles makes this intriguing arm not worth your time in a 12-teamer.
Andrew Suarez – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Suarez handed you a Philly with just one strikeout. HAISTFMFWT?! I don’t see this as a regular affair – the Mariners are a solid offense – though we all know Suarez isn’t going to crack the Top 50.
Kenta Maeda – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Kenta was pretty dang good in this one, earning a share of the Gallows Pole at 18 whiffs (I still can’t believe it, Bailey?!) and surviving for seven frames. A bit of Careful Icarus here as he allowed 3 ER in the seventh, which is a bit hilarious as we want him to go deeper into games. Maybe we don’t, y’all. Maybe we don’t. No we definitely do. Yeah, you’re right.
Drew Pomeranz – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It was a DLH as Pomeranz made his first start since May 31st. I don’t see this working out all too well the rest of the way, but it’s possible he gives you a sub 4.00 ERA with around a 1.30 WHIP. I don’t want that in 12-teamers, I can imagine it helping some in AL-Only leagues, especially with his chances at Wins.
Jordan Zimmermann – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I wrote about Zim’s curveball usage a few weeks ago and he’s only been disappointing since. Womp womp. I didn’t see anything here that made me think “Oh, this should have been better.”
Eric Lauer – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Ahhh, back to the ole El. O. L. for Lauer as Eric Only Losses couldn’t handle the Mets. I know Eric, it’s a tough gig.
Shane Bieber – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Bieber was as hittable as ever in this one, featuring plenty of meatballs over the plate for the Pirates to smack. He pounds the zone often, but he needs to command along the edges better or these games will happen. I’m not dropping him after this – he’s definitely capable of avoiding them – but yeah, this is the floor that comes with this approach.
Julio Teheran – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Yep, that’s the Teheran we know and hate. Well, it was at home! Nope. On the road. In Miami. Eyuuughh.
Sam Gaviglio vs. Minnesota Twins – Blegh, but there really aren’t any other choices. Yes, Danny Duffy is owned in over 20% of leagues…it’s 55%. Wild.
Nick Kingham vs. New York Mets – How is he owned in under 20% of leagues still. How.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Pablo Lopez vs. Washington Nationals – There’s some upside here and the Nationals are not scaring me.
Game of the Day
Jameson Taillon vs. Trevor Bauer – It’s Bauer + I want to see if Taillon can handle the Indians. I think he can.
For what it’s worth, the Indians couldn’t turn two with David freakin Freese running and a Corey Dickerson triple hit Tyler Naquin in the palm. 5 outs plus a guy who gives up hits equals… A terrible outing
That CLE D helps a lot more than it hurts. Its not like he pitches for the Twins or the Dodgers or something like that.
What are your ROS thoughts on Ervin Santana in a 12 tm mixed H2H league with QS over W. Not starting him today as it’s a DLH. Scooped him up as a DL stash
I’m curious what we’ll get out of Santana. Not the worst stash in a QS league, but he’s a borderline Toby at best. It might take some time for him to get into a groove and I wouldn’t hold if you need the DL room.
Any idea about SP value for 2019? I’ve got Carlos Martinez, but I’m trying to move him. Jack Flaherty, Joey Lucchesi, Corbin Burnes, Matt Strahm, Austin Gomber, Triston McKenzie, and Caleb Smith are my youth movement options right now, although I am monitoring some younger guys like Mackenzie Gore and Touki Toussaint.
2019 value for who specifically?
Well, I’m assuming Flaherty will be okay and Lucchesi and Smith will at least have rotation spots to start the year. Will Burnes, Strahm, Gomber, or McKenzie be likely starters at the major league level next year and fantasy relevant? I refuse to invest $20+ on any SP anymore (or sign three year extensions; one and done for my SP), after the debacle that was my rotation this year, but guys who maintain rookie status can be kept for $2 in my league and if they go over 50 IP, cost $6. The top pitching prospects are accounted for in my league (Whitley, Reyes, Soroka, Keller, etc.), so I’m rummaging around, if not the garbage bin, the yard sale of young SP looking for #3-caliber SP on the cheap.
(Totally understand if this is too generic of a question to really give any kind of answer on.)
Not to be a turd, but the answer to your “How is Nick Kingham owned in under 20% of leagues” is his 4.11 ERA and 4.67 FIP and less than a K/IP. You guys ranking him a top 50 pitcher feels pretty bold.
Fair enough, though there are guys with plenty worse ERAs and not close to his recent trends that are well over 20% owned.
For sure. I’m still keeping a close eye on him based on how high you are, but waiting a bit longer.
I love the site and your work, so I hope my initial comment didn’t come off too harsh.
In a QS league, who would you rather roll with for weeks 8/6 through 8/19 (our playoffs)?
Eovaldi (BOS as of today) – @TOR, @BAL, vTAM (Fenway)
Gibson- @CLE, @DET, vDET
Is Walker Buehler a start today in Philly after that marathon last night?
Also, I don’t think I would call the M’s a “solid” offense right now. They have been bad in July and the absence of Cano is really starting to hurt them.
So, the Reds have nearly been no hit in back to back games… can you imagine that team without Votto lol
So I was trying not to jinx JF officially, but I was hinting at his prospects today. I also figured that there was no way that Reds team would actually shit their pants three days in a row. More importantly, I have huge concerns about the decision making process in STL at this point. Whoever is making the decisions seems to be all-in on getting to that bullpen ASAP and that hurts the starters a lot. I think the worst decisions come from those that don’t understand the game lurking behind the scenes and I am sure that every organization has people in that role. I wonder if STL didn’t clean house just to have a pawn at the helm so they can implement some really progressive, poor baseball decisions. STL was always regarded as a model organization that got a lot out of their players and always competed – to think that they wanted to clean house tells you a bit about where their priorities lie – which isn’t in player development or winning games, which was a strength under the old regime. Whoever is making those calls doesn’t seem to value sending the starter out any more than they have to which is sad because they have some talent in that rotation. I am bumping all STL starters down a tier in leagues where innings count for much. Obviously they can help ratios, but counting stats, W and QS look to be trending down.
You know whats weird about Montas? He has always been ticketed for the bullpen and in 2017 that is all he did was pitch out of the pen. Now here we are in 2018 and he is a middling starter in MLB. He would probably be murder out of the bullpen but who knows when that happens especially with OAK making moves.
Gibson still a “start” this week now that he’s facing the Sawx instead of the Jays? I’m deciding between Gibson and Stroman (just one) to help fill the void created by the losses of Edu and Fulmer.
I often read about “stretching out” a pitcher to enable deeper starts. I cannot find any information about how and why this works. I heard an announcer say it is not about stretching out the arm but about stretching out the mind. can anyone tell me what stretching out entails?
It is just building up a pitch count… beyond that there isn’t much substance. Sure the stamina is part of it as well as the idea of working hitters a bit differently as you get deeper into the game, but its nothing. Some guys throw a CG in their first start of the year… there isn’t any information because its not a tangible thing. Its more like a guy who only pitches one inning would have lots of adjustments he would need to work through to throw 100 pitches. Guys who pitch deep into games tend to do so consistently – not sure its because they are stretched out as much as they are just well-suited to the task.
Thanks for that.
I think it’s safe to say four months into the season that Kluber won’t be having a typical Kluber type of year. I would rather have DeGrom over Kluber ROS in a standard roto league using QS-K-ERA-WHIP.
Do you agree or not, Nick?