I find it weird that I need to do this, but today we’re going to go in depth on Patrick Corbin after his 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks start against the Braves. Over his last six starts prior to this one, Corbin held a 10.54 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 3.34 ERA, 2.40 FIP, and a 54.9% groundball rate. Solid numbers, though the only tough team of the bunch were the Dodgers…where he lasted just 4.2 IP and allowed 3 ERs with a near 2.00 WHIP. So of course, as always, we ask the question: Has there been a significant change that can make us believe this is real? Here’s what I’ve seen: Corbin was getting whiffs on his Slider and Changeup at rates of 20.19% and 5.83% prior to this run. After? Changeup whiff rate doubled to 12.50%, Slider to 26.42%. That’s good. He got six more on his Slider today for a 20% rate today…and 0/14 on his Changeup. Welp, can’t win em all. There isn’t much else telling about these outings and while it’s possible Corbin has figured out his command significantly, I’m going to attribute this moreso with the competition he’s faced. Still, not the worst flier for a 12-teamer – especially if you need the strikeouts – but don’t let this give you the brass to start him against the Nationals. That’s a terrible idea.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Cole Hamels – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The last time Hamels pitched, I led with him suggesting that he might be a good buy low target. Now he doubled down on last two previous starts, going 5 Ks again and once again going 7.2 frames of shutout ball. Sure, it was the Angels before and now the Royals and it’s not going to be this easy, but I’m only feeling better about that suggestion.
Lance Lynn – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I thought about leading with Lynn as that 3.61 ERA and 8.18 K/9 is sure to attract plenty of flies. Or bees. Aha! Fleas. Are you calling owners who own Lynn insects? Of course not! This has gotten off track…Lynn is also sporting a super low .220 BABIP across this time with a 5.19 FIP and 4.60 xFIP, not to mention his two starts in the last eight that are over 5 Ks. Or his 3.34 BB/9. There’s just too much not to like that I don’t want to own Lynn.
Chris Sale – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 13 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Too bad he couldn’t go another eight innings for the Sawx as he earned another ND. Well he needed to go just four outs more. Yeah but that isn’t nearly as entertaining of a read.
Luis Severino – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Aces did well today. What impressed me a ton here is that his Slider wasn’t even on and he found a way to grind it out with his Fastball/Changeup. That’s the mark of a true stud. If you’ve been having doubts about Severino’s second half, I really think you need to watch this start as it will make you reconsider.
Max Scherzer – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Four walks…you’re losing it Scherzer.
Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Thanks Roberts for pulling Wood after 80 pitches. Expect flowers on Monday. Tyler? Nah, Lily. Who’s Lily Flowers?
Corey Kluber – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. It’s just that day. Nothing like a pair of HRs to Matt Chapman of all people to ruin this sparkling start. Oh, and he earned the Gallows Pole by one whiff over Sale with a total of 21. Step it up Chris.
Jimmy Nelson – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. I want to drop the AGA bomb here, but this was the Phils. He gets the Pirates and Nats next and if he be good against the Nats regardless of the Pirates start, he’ll get the trumpets and all. On the real though, after a shaky April, Nelson has a 2.58 ERA, 10.64 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 6+ IPS, and 52.2% groundball rate across 13 starts – and that’s not even including this one! Absurd.
Jake Arrieta – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Want to know my favorite stat of tonight? Arrieta had just two whiffs in 101 pitches. This creates a sell faster than mitosis.
Alex Cobb – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Ugggh. Come on Regression, I know you showed up to the party two weeks ago, but you left your cat and she’s tearing up the place. I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH LONGER THIS CAN LAST. Stop yelling. BUT MY COUCH. Oh snap, that gorgeous L couch that’s super comfortable? YES. PICK UP YOUR DANG CAT, REGRESSION.
Danny Duffy – 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I hate to sound like a Debbie but Duffy’s velocity was 93.7mph. Okay that was just for one pitch – his highest of the game – as he averaged 92.5mph across this start. That should be alarming to anyone following #DuffyVelocityWatch2017 as it’s a full two points underneath his successful 2016 season. But look at the results! Good point, just nine whiffs in 91 pitches though…I’m a little worried. Still throwing him against the Tigers next, but worried.
Michael Fulmer – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Fulmer churns out Three-Fist Compromises like it’s an extra inning of a Red Sox-Yankee game. I miss old Doug Fister. Do you really though? Anyway, it’s hard to push Fulmer into the Top 15 until he shows off that K upside I know he has in him. Release the beast Fulmer.
Felix Hernandez – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. I’m not putting much stock into this as Felix played the White Sox. I know it’s two straight solid performances, but the A’s came prior. Show me what you got against the Yankees to prove this isn’t a One In A Lifetime thing and this Talking Head can disappear. I think this is your best joke of the year. This year has been that bad?!
Joe Musgrove – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. Musgrove is leaving the rotation super soon and I question how many people will be sad about it.
Mike Pelfrey – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This is so boring I feel like I’m being forced to verify if Kenny G really held the longest note ever.
Aaron Nola – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. That 1.50 WHIP is holding me back from getting pumped as Nola faced the Brew Crew, but still, this is Nola’s fifth straight start with at least 7 Ks and if you’re not on board yet I have to ask why not. The Power Quads are legit.
Ervin Santana – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. 2 ER and a dub are pretty fortunate for Santana as he faced the Astros…but the WHIP and 3 Ks are right in line with why we don’t want to own Santana anymore.
Paul Blackburn – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. This Cup of Schmo was bound to have a start like this. He didn’t even get the final out for a VPQS! What a shame.
Madison Bumgarner – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Welcome back Bumgarner. Fortunately the Padres aren’t a team filled with dirt bikes and he survived for another day. I think we all agreed that this one didn’t fall under the DLH pretenses as A) It’s Bumgarner and B) It was the Padres. I’ll take it, now go fan at least 7 with 2 ER next time out.
Luis Castillo – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s a PQS with a 1.17 WHIP and 6 Ks. Yes, I know, I see it. It was also against the Nationals, which makes this pretty impressive. I think you start him here on out as he’s gotten the Nats and Coors out of the way.
Jhoulys Chacin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it. Are you happy with this outing? I’m sure not. It’s a VVPQS with that WHIP.
Mike Foltynewicz – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I wrote a piece for Jonah Keri’s The 10 that went over the luck Folty has had and mentioned that it’s possible his breaking balls are getting better command from Folty. For fantasy purposes, that isn’t a bet you want to make, especially against the Dbacks.
Seth Lugo – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Meh. That’s it. Meh. You’re not someone I want to own.
Tyler Chatwood – 0.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. Yikes, this sure wasn’t a good streaming pick, my bad. But wait…what would have been? Pelfrey? Fine, Corbin but it’s not like there was much I missed out on here and Corbin was mentioned in the blurb. But yeah, I chose Chatwood and this was terrible. My bad. Streamer Record 47-32-12.
J.C. Ramirez – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Don’t hold out for those strikeouts to return. It could happen once or twice here-on-out, but a consistent flow of strikeout games is long gone and y’all know the floor by now.
Jameson Taillon – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Things were pretty good until the 5th…which also started just fine until three straight hits turned into three ER. Taillon could have gone deeper (just 84 pitches) but alas, five innings is what we got. This doesn’t do much to change my opinion of Taillon, but I will note that I need to see some 7 K outings if I want to believe he’s a top 20 kind of guy again.
Francisco Liriano – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Ahhhh there’s a normal Liriano start! GIVE ME THE EXTREMES. Suit Man whispers in my ear. Oh, that extreme? Looks like Liriano got pulled with a neck injury. He really should stop watching classic 90s SNL skits. Baby don’t hurt me, don’t hurt me, no more…
Jose Urena – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. If you trust Jose, Urena boatload of trouble.
Wade Miley – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. #JustMileyThings. I’m so sorry for using a hashtag. Wish Miley had the same sympathy.
Andrew Moore vs Chicago White Sox – Very few options meet the sub 25% threshold today, leaving me with Moore against the White Sox. Really don’t like this one, but it’s all I’ve got.
Jerad Eickhoff vs. Miami Marlins – The Marlins are a stronger offense than in previous years, though Eickhoff looked great in his return last weekend and this could turn out well for him on Monday.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Sean Newcomb vs. Chicago Cubs – Once again, there’s little be found on the wire for a good stream, though we might get a better idea when rotations solidify in the next few days. Best shot out there is Newcomb’s K upside against the Cubs as he’s finally pitching against a team not named the Astros or Nationals.
Game of the Day
Masahiro Tanaka vs. David Price – The Red Sox-Yankee games actually mean something once again and we get two high-profile arms facing each other. Count me in.
Nice call on the “games to watch” yesterday. gem matchups did not disappoint.
Fulmer working on a curve now. Tested it a few times yesterday. Could this be what he needs to develop to get more K’s? Not going to complain about the efficiency and dependable super low WHIP, but the predictable first pitch 4seamer got people swinging early now.
Yeah I definitely think Fulmer feels the need to get another pitch in the mix. He doesn’t have that incredible whiff pitch is the problem and I’m skeptical that this Curveball can be it. It’s possible he can mix the deuce instead of his Slider as a strike-getter, saving the sharper slide piece as a putaway option. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
“This creates a sell faster than mitosis.” I hadn’t heard that one before and I couldn’t be more pleased.
Gotta keep you guys on your toes.