Casey Mize vs KC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
I felt tonight was time for us to set the record straight about Casey Mize after going 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks against the Royals. Do I think that Mize can develop and become a strong fantasy-relevant arm? Sure, I think that’s still a possibility as he features a 94/95 mph fastball, a slider that returned a 35% CSW here and constantly gets strikes, and a splitter that has its moments. The problem is, the whole blueprint only works when all pieces work together in tandem, and when it’s not, we get starts like this one. His splitter went 1/17 whiffs leading to a HAISTFMFWT?! while his fastball command was simply horrendous.
I want to hammer in the point that this is going to take time. Even if Mize shows up next week with a successful start, it doesn’t define consistency in the follow-up. I know he has a ton of prospect pedigree and his name has been everywhere for a good while, but in your 12-teamers, you’re putting yourself at too much risk with Mize. You’re much better off streaming.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Jacob deGrom vs WSH (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 15 Ks – 29 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 109 pitches.
deGrom gonna deGrom. Way better than deMize. It’s a Golden Goal as he recorded at least 14 strikeouts for the third straight game. Don’t take for granted the golden era we live in.
J.A. Happ vs PIT (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 95 pitches.
Look at that, Happ finally goes six frames and elects to do so while flirting with a no-hitter. It ain’t easy to do that when you earn just three strikeouts, bucko. I guess the Pirates do that. Anyway it’s Kansas City and Texas next and that could be good, but it’s not a “I MUST HOLD THIS” scenario. Happ just doesn’t do enough to warrant that.
Yu Darvish @ LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Yu is just chilling at the #4 spot on The List and putting up lines against one of the best lineups in baseball. Yu do Yu.
Cole Irvin @ BAL (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
While he earned no awards, Cole was certainly a King against the Orioles, despite the WHIP that makes it a bit of a Dusty Donut. I’ve been waiting for a pitch that makes me emit a deep Keith Hernandez Mmmmm and his changeup did just that yesterday, going 10/25 whiffs and 44% CSW. I still don’t love that heater and his breakers are blegh, but if Irvin sticks in this rotation, he’s earned himself a position on my streamer list. That’s only for weak lineups, of course. Like the Rays next? Ummm, maybe? That’s a tough one, I think I’m leaning no.
Kwang Hyun Kim vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 85 pitches.
Hot dang! He served us the despised Philly but who cares, Kim gave you eight strikeouts and glorious ratios. He went nearly two-pitch here with four-seamers and sliders, with the breaker doing crazy things at a 48% CSW and 9 whiffs. Command was excellent on fastballs as well and it’s tempting to give him a go against the Phils next. In general, we’ve seen guys showcase elite command one start and it can fade as soon as the next outing, and while Kim is more known as that command guy, it’s hard to bank on him being this good against another good offense. It’s a close one.
Alex Wood vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
Amazing stuff here from Wood as his slider was straight-up nasty. It used to be a knuckle-curve but I’m amazing I even remembered that as I’m starry-eyed about the 10 whiffs and 45% CSW this slide piece returned. Great pitch separation as well and now he gets Rockie Road?! Hooooooold!!!
Andrew Heaney @ HOU (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 101 pitches.
You love to see it. 93 mph heaters work for me as he kept the pitch up and just look at this curveball and changeup locations! It’s what you want from Heaney, who is notoriously inconsistent. And now after dealing with the tough Astros squad in glorious fashion, he’s earned a bit of respite against the Rangers. Go get ’em, Heaney.
Zack Greinke vs LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 107 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Yeah yeah, 10 hits ain’t cool, but that BABIP ain’t sticking and everything else is glorious. Greinke feels like the new Hendricks, I guess. That’s fine.
Huascar Ynoa vs ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.
It’s all going according to plan. Ynoa looked good in this one, even showing a changeup a few times that I wonder if he can develop into a proper third offering over time. Regardless, that slider is still dope – 40% CSW across 55% THROWN – and his heater got outs. I can’t shake the feeling that Ynoa is just going to get better as the season goes on and here’s to another possible step forward in a revenge start against the Cubs next.
Vince Velasquez @ COL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 67 pitches.
It looks we won’t see Moore no more and instead it’s limited pitches Velasquez. And no one rejoiced. That’s not fair, there’s an outside chance VV can win with four-seamers on a given day when he’s throwing ched—wait, he averaged 92.2 mph on his heater? Oh no. Oh no. That’s what I said. I CAN SYMPATHIZE TOO.
Kyle Hendricks vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 92 pitches.
Velocity is down to sub 86 mph right now and his curveball and changeup combined for 17% CSW. Yikes. The fastball command was great, though, and I have to think over time Hendricks gets into the groove you want. Nick, that sounds awfully negative for a good evening! Sure, but with Atlanta next, I wanted to see more from his repertoire to instill confidence. I think you’ll still start Hendricks there, but it ain’t pretty.
Sandy Alcantara @ SF (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Maaaaan this was rough. Alcantara’s biggest asset has been command and boy it wasn’t there. Changeups were tugged glove-side, fastballs failed to land arm-side (like Africa for me, that’s his jam!) and sliders floated into the zone. He’s fortunate to just have two runs to his name. It’s weird how his last three starts he was locked in, yet this is the outing where he’s sub 3 ER. That’s baseball, Suzyn. Anyway, I think it’s an exception and we’re going to get our salvation across the next three starts against the Brewers and 2x Arizona. I can taste it.
Dylan Cease vs TEX (ND) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
After he showed great slider command last time out, I was itching to see if this was Cease’s breakout start as he faced the lowly Rangers. Welp. On one hand, he did throw more fastballs in the zone this time, but his slider wasn’t the big pitch I wanted it to be and there wasn’t anything else. It is encouraging at least to see the four-seamer fall down into the zone like I wanted last time, but once again, Cease can make it all click. Maybe it does against the Tigers, your guess is as good as mine here.
Martin Perez vs SEA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
Blegh. Even against the Mariners, Martin can’t do much for your squads. Stop considering this.
German Marquez vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 100 pitches.
The rules are for you to bench Marquez in Coors and while that’s a 1.50 WHIP, you got a 3.00 ERA and eight strikeouts. That works for me, especially when both his slider and curveball are this good. Seriously, 19 whiffs between the two. NINETEEN. That’s wild. Marquez’s 2018 streak was a product of both pitches working and you should all be pumped for this @ARI start next. It should be a feast.
JT Brubaker @ MIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
Look at Coffee Cakes go. He could have gone another inning or maybe even two, cruising with sliders like it’s his J.O.B. (Spoiler alert: it is) and getting outs with fastballs. I’m still worried long term as it really is just that slide piece and hoping the BABIP falls his way with everything else, but with Kansas City on the docket, we’re still holding for now.
Mike Minor @ DET (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 102 pitches.
It worked! Streaming Record: 12-9. His velocity is still down, sadly (91 mph) and the big surprise here is a new Knuckle-Curve?! Minor succeeded in 2019 with a changeup. Then 2020 saw him use his slider for some reason. Now, there’s this deuce with a 37% CSW and I’m all for this over his meh sweeper. He’ll get the Pirates next and sign. Me. UP.
Steven Matz @ TB (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 87 pitches.
Am I impressed that Matz keeps getting solid strikeout totals without a major whiff pitch? Absolutely. Can he keep getting away with a super high called strike rate with sinkers? Maaabye? It’s generally the least sticky element we see, but it’s not unheard of (Bassitt, what’s up). Changeup and curveball were both still good so yeah, we keep trucking with Matz.
Brett Anderson @ CHC (L) – 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 10 pitches.
This whole game was pain. Anderson felt it in his knee and left during the first, forcing Josh Lindblom to suddenly do what he could and…it was rough. Really rough. He’ll likely get the rotation spot, though, and I don’t want y’all to see this 8 ER disaster and think he doesn’t have it. He was thrown into the fire and on a regular routine, Lindblom could work out. I’d just wait a start or two first.
Jordan Montgomery @ CLE (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
Bleeeggggh. Man, for everything that Monty does well – Curveball, cutter, changeup all at 30%+ CSW – it feels like he’s constantly struggling to make it all work in tandem when he’s on the mound. He needs that pitch he can dominate the zone with and it used to be sinkers, but that was kinda whack here. It’s kinda like Civale in this way. Nothing is overwhelming hitters but the package as a whole can be great when it’s all working. It’s like a Toby who knows he should be working in HR. I was supposed to be a salesman…The good news is that it’s Baltimore + Detroit next and you want that, still.
Erick Fedde @ NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 82 pitches.
Remember kids, Don’t Trust The Feddes.
Jorge Lopez vs OAK (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Lopez will forever have a side of PEAS and it makes me sad. I’d say HAISTFMFWT?! but none of you started him. Your families are great.
Clayton Kershaw vs SD (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Sure, it’s 3 ER, but it’s dampened by the extra inning, a lovely WHIP and seven strikeouts. He won’t face the Padres every time, too. I promise. That fastball is at 91 mph, by the way, so yeah, this is cool.
Luke Weaver @ ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
Despite earning 10 whiffs on his heater, Weaver faltered as his changeup simply didn’t pick up the phone. Hey, slowball. Hope you’re well. Soooo we had scheduled to hang out tonight at 7:00 pm EST and only one of your 16 showed up. Give me a call back when you can, thanks! The cutter finally returned, though, albeit for 3/9 CSW and barely found the zone as he kept it away from right-handers. We’re still far away from what we want.
Logan Allen vs NYY (L) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 54 pitches.
This isn’t the LA LA land you were looking for. There isn’t enough in this repertoire to sign on moving forward.
Yusei Kikuchi @ BOS (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
I was a bit aggressive with Kikuchi’s rank on The List last week, hoping his skills were taking a step forward to make him survive a start like this one, against Boston. Noooope. Thanks, Lana Kane. His velocity dropped a touch to 94 mph, his cutter went 0/34 on whiffs (yikes) and while he did a good job of keeping his slider down, he seemed off with his overall command, returning just one strikeout in the process (HAISTFMFWT?!). Now it’s Houston, Baltimore, Dodgers next and I’m hoping he can get through this.
Sonny Gray @ STL (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
Bleggggh. He didn’t have his slider (13% CSW!) and we need that as his sinker doesn’t do great things, even if it held a 36% CSW here. It’s bad timing for Gray as he gets the Dodgers and White Sox next, but I think he’ll figure this out. Bench if you must against L.A., but it’s way too early to legit panic. He does this from time to time and always fixes it.
Tyler Glasnow vs TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
We were asking ourselves “Will Glasnow lose his slider command? What happens then?” This is what happens, Larry. It’s still heavily worth your time, but he’s more hittable, especially when his curveball cant’ pick up the slack inside the zone. Welp, he’ll take a small dip in the ranks because of it – still clearly Top 20 if not Top 15 – and this is what you signed up for.
Dane Dunning @ CWS (ND) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 62 pitches.
Ouch. You wanted to have an evening letting loose with the friends and you’re the one who drew the DD stick. I’ll go get the Mazda…Dunning has relied heavily on his slider and here earned just 13% CSW, forcing him to do things with just a 90 mph sinker. It doesn’t spell success. I think we’re out until he gets the Mariners in a few weeks.
Game of the Day
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)