Carlos Hernandez vs NYY (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
When making The List today, I wanted to make sure Carlos Hernández made the cut, and I was even tempted to raise him well past his final tier spot. I certainly regret that now after he boasted his third straight productive outing tonight against the Yankees with 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches. Is Carlos the next “must-add” young arm in 12-teamers?
I’m not quite sold yet — his slider & curveball returned just 3/37 whiffs here — but I can’t ignore the previous outing that featured 10 secondary whiffs, nor should I look past a pair of heaters that combined for 36% CSW here. The sad news is that Houston is next, and I’d be shocked if he could pull that one off (I know, he endured the White Sox twice before this game). The heater looks great, but it’s not Walker Buehler or Brandon Woodruff levels and without the legit secondaries to back up the four-seamer and sinker, I worry he may fizzle out. Keep tabs on this.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Jameson Taillon @ KC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.
Taillon keeps the streak alive, though his curveball wasn’t nearly as effective as we saw last start and the changeup + slider were middling. I’m not nearly as encouraged from this one and seeing the ChiSox on the horizon gives me a bit of fear. I really hope he can get that hook feel back again.
Sam Hentges vs CIN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 39 pitches.
This was a bullpen game for Cleveland and Hentges was pretty dang pedestrian. No Hentges maze to figure out here, just plain ole ignore.
Lucas Giolito @ MIN (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. See? We had nothing to worry about. The slider and changeup earned plenty of strikes (30%+ CSW each), and his four-seamer earned outs as he cruised through the Twins’ lineup. He needed to pull down his ERA close to 3.50 at some point.
Joe Musgrove vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 94 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! It may feel like a cheap “Golden Goal” when competing against just seven other starters, but those marks are elite. I’ve been suggesting Musgrove needs to push his fastball rate to 30% (à la Austin Gomber), but instead he took his ~20% clip and turned it into 15% tonight, leaning hard into his slider for a ton of success. We’re talking 14/37 whiffs on the breaker with his curveball and cutter many strikes as well. He can do this against Miami, sure, but will that work against the Diamondbacks? Probably. Okay, fine. But will it—Please stop. Noted.
Zach Thompson @ SD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 75 pitches.
May the 4s be with you. Obi-Wan, that’s terrible advice, don’t you know how much this hurts my ratios? Thompson has been in a bit of a rut since the All-Star break as he’s failed to go six frames or fan at least six since July fourth. MAY THE FOURTH—Imma stop you there. But hey, this was the Padres and the Cubs are far easier to deal with. Let’s just hope his cutter and curveball are ready for the task – they went 0/38 whiffs here. Yikes.
Beau Burrows vs CWS (L) – 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 64 pitches.
Wooof. This was supposed to be a bullpen game, but Beau got pulled in for 64 pitches in just two frames as he struggled. It’s times like these we wish we could ___ into a hole and stay there. Dive? Fall into? Hide? Yeah, I think one of those words, Burrows. You nailed it. Thanks friend, I needed that. Can you please come out of your hole you burrowsed into? NEVER.
Luis Castillo @ CLE (L) – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 71 pitches.
Oh dear. No no no. I should never give AGA labels again. Castillo threw a ton of pitches over the middle of the plate and like an Irish stag, they got hammered. Do whatever you need to do to cleanse yourself of this one and wake up the next day like the rest of us. Whatareyagonnado.
Game of the Day
Freddy Peralta vs Justin Steele – Let’s hope for at least 70 pitches from Peralta + I wonder how Steele will perform as a starter.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Castillo gets far too much love EVERYWHERE. His results are basically Cookie’s, and he doesn’t have the injury/health issues as an excuse. He’s got flat-out ridiculous stuff that make every pitching fan drool excessively, but it’s gonna be there JUUUUUSSSST over 66.666…% of the time unless something really changes.
I see the talent, but I’ve almost never understood the ADP.