Reds Total Runs
Paolo Espino looks like he is overperforming a bit considering his 4.99 xERA and K rate that is right around league average at 21.2%. Along with the lack of strikeouts, his batted ball data hasn’t been too great either. So far he’s allowed an elevated barrel rate of 11.6%. With the scene shifting to the Great American Ball Park the Reds offense is worth targeting against a pitcher whose results to date might have been buoyed some by recent favorable opponents like the Road Rockies and the Marlins.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-135 DraftKings)
Carlos Hernández Total Strikeouts
Like many young pitchers, Carlos Hernández has shown some struggles with command and control especially in his latest start against Oakland. But, he has also sown some intriguing swing and miss stuff with a fastball that has averaged just over 97 and two breaking pitches that have returned whiff rates over 30%.
Today he gets the Tigers who, as you know, have been a good target for strikeouts with a team K rate of 25.6%, third-highest. They also have just a .306 team OBP, tied for sixth lowest. We’ve seen Hernández peak with six or more strikeouts in five of his last 12 appearances going back to July 6th. Five strikeouts against a friendlier opponent like the Tigers seem like a reasonable outcome tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+105 DraftKings)
Blue Jays Total Runs
Bailey Ober is an interesting name to keep a lookout for next year. So far he’s been impressive with a 19.8 K-BB% through 87 IP. However, he’s still an inexperienced pitcher who leans on his fastball a lot, throwing it a 57.3% clip against righties.
This will also be his second start in a row facing the Blue Jays (.331 team wOBA, fourth-best) so they’ll be more familiar with him and you all know they are an offense that can go off in a blink. The other thing with Ober is that the Twins have maintained a pretty tight leash with him holding to under 80 pitches in each of his last four appearances so there is a very decent chance that even if he pitches well, we will be seeing some Twins middle relief; in which case I think an offense like the Jays is worth taking a chance on.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-130 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 34-37-0
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