Red Sox at White Sox Moneyline
I’m not sold that Carlos Rodón is at full strength. He was placed on the IL back on 8/11 with left shoulder fatigue then returned to make a start against the Jays on 8/26. In that start, he managed to get through five innings while averaging 94.9 mph with his fastball — not overly alarming, but a slight decrease from his season-long fastball velocity of 95.7 mph. Fast forward to his last start against the Pirates back on 9/1. There his fastball velocity was down to 93, now that’s 2.7 mph off his season average of 95.7. That’s somewhat concerning.
To be fair, this isn’t a terribly surprising outcome for Rodón considering that he hasn’t thrown this many innings since 2018 (120.2 IP) the point here is that based on what he’s shown in his past two starts he definitely looks fatigued. The White Sox have since skipped one of his starts in hopes that the rest will do him good. He’ll face a tough task tonight, though, against a Boston offense that ranks third in team wOBA at .332. And since August 1st, they’ve been the best offense in baseball with a .351 team wOBA.
The other side of this game could favor Boston as well. If you’re a fan of nasty sliders, then you’ll no doubt have an appreciation for Tanner Houck. That slider of his has helped him hold down opposing RHB to just a .280 xwOBA and 35.2% K rate. That could give him an edge tonight as he’ll face a White Sox lineup that leans toward RHB.
Pick: BOS (+135 DraftKings)
Germán Márquez Total Strikeouts
So Germán Márquez has admittedly not looked all that great lately with his slider and curveball not getting the whiffs they normally do. Case in point, his start against Texas a couple of turns ago — just two strikeouts. Yeah, that’s not what we want. But, I just think this total seems too low for a pitcher of his caliber, especially considering that it’s away from Coors Field. Looking at the greater sample size of 161 IP this year, Márquez has posted an above-average K rate of 24.2% and he’s gotten to five or more strikeouts in 22 of his 28 starts on the year.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-105 DraftKings)
Rays at Tigers Alternate Run Line
I’m not excited about the Rays starting tandem of Michael Wacha and Chris Archer but I think they can be effective enough against a weaker lineup like Detroit (.307 team wOBA, 20th). I do like the Rays offense though. Their team wOBA of .322 on the year ranks 10th. However, if you look at what they’ve done since August 1st, that number jumps all the way to .346, second-best in that span.
Matthew Boyd has been someone who has struggled with the long ball in his career, so I think the 9.3% HR/FB he’s at right now likely regresses closer to the 18.6% we saw in the past two seasons combined. This Rays lineup now featuring Wander Franco and Nelson Cruz at the top should give him trouble and we know there’s a less than stellar Detroit pen lurking behind Boyd.
Pick: Rays -2.5 (+145 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 32-33-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)