The best ice-breaker in the world is talking about the weather. Awkward silence? Talk about the weather. Change the subject of conversation? Weather. Writing an intro to a Bets of the Day article? W-E-A-T-H-E-R. Whether we want to talk about it or not, it has to be addressed today, particularly with four postponements, and there might be more to come as well.
Playing conditions can drastically affect the way a game is played, and in turn, affect the outcome of a bet. It shouldn’t be the main focus in handicapping a game, but it is a factor that shouldn’t be forgotten. The main reason I wanted to bring this up today has to do with what happened when the Yankees and Royals played on April 29th.
Those who took the Bronx Bombers on the run-line were well on their to cashing tickets and then the rain came pouring down in the 9th. With the Yankees up 12-2 and the rain still pouring, they decided to call the game, which voided bets on the game total and run-line. It sucks, but this is a rule (taken from the DraftKings website) that a vast majority of sportsbooks have, “For bets to have action, the game must go at least 9 full innings (8.5 if the home team is ahead).” Anyways, enough about my lecture, just something to keep in mind when wagering.
Eric Lauer over 5.5 strikeouts +100 vs ATL
I’m trying not to overreact here, but come on; homeboy is coming off back-to-back double-digit strikeout starts! Now, to be fair, he did this against the Cubs and the Phillies, who were reeling at the time, but the increase in velocity across all of his pitches is legit. This has resulted in a 31.6% CSW% and league-leading swinging-strike rate (22.4%) on his 4-seam-fastball. Tonight he gets the Braves, and aside from Marcell Ozuna, they haven’t seen much of him. Atlanta has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, and the last two southpaws they faced were Taylor Hearn and David Peterson, who both amassed 6 Ks a piece. At even money, this seems like an excellent look to me.
COL/ARI F5 under 4.5 runs -110
Merrill Kelly and Chad Kuhl will take us to the promised land tonight. Kelly has been a revelation to start this year and has allowed only 4 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings of work. He should continue to suppress bats tonight facing the Rockies on the road. By now, everyone probably knows how the Rocky Road melts out of Coors Field; that’s no different this year as they have the second-worst wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching.
Kuhl hasn’t faced the stiffest competition to start the year, but it’s not like the D-Backs are of any concern either with the fourth-worst wRC+. He has thrown 23 2/3 innings and allowed only 5 earned runs. Avoid these atrocious bullpens and get in and out with an early cash in this first five-inning clash.
NRFI parlay: TOR/CLE -165 + MIA/SD -160 = +161
Speaking of early cashes, let’s live it up this Friday with a little NRFI parlay between the 2 best pitching matchups of the day. The Guardians have Shane Bieber on the bump who is a beast in the first (and, y’know, just generally too). He has a 30-3 NRFI record since 2020 and has yet to allow a hit or walk in the 1st inning this year. Kevin Gausman has also been
Another rainout in Cleveland, great! Not going to force anything else, and not laying the -160 juice on that MIA/SD NRFI on its own. However, I might have more plays on Twitter later involving Luis Garcia and his strikeout prop…best of luck tonight!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)