Welcome to the Bets of the Day column for Tuesday. This has been a wonderful month. Last week we went 3-0 to bring our May record to 10-2. You are very welcome! I smell another 3-0 day on the horizon! As you might know, if you have been reading my articles, I take a data-driven approach with my selections, especially with daily fantasy. In some ways, betting on the games and playing DFS are closely tied. After all, you are trying to find an edge, and more specifically with baseball, you are doing a deep dive into the pitching matchups. Check out the table below which ranks all of the starting pitchers today using six metrics, four of which are from Statcast.
As usual, I will highlight three picks. Let’s get to it!
New York Mets -1.5 Run Line (+105)
The Mets are red hot right now. Rarely do I find the time to watch the games but I caught the first inning of the Mets – Phillies Sunday Night game. I was blown away by how well the Mets work the pitch count. Their patience at the plate is a big reason why they are 33-17 and winners of four consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Nationals are at the bottom of the NL East with an 18-32 record. This is a classic example of two teams going in the opposite direction.
Furthermore, the delta between Trevor Williams’ ranking in the table above (sum of rankings for all six metrics) and Patrick Corbin’s is high. Don’t be shy. Take the run line and you will be glad you did.
Atlanta Braves – Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 runs (-105)
Look at the table above. Both starting pitchers are in the bottom 5 with most of the metrics displayed. Expect both teams to tee off in the desert tonight. The run total was at 9 earlier this morning and it already has crept up to 9.5. I would not be surprised if it gets to 10 or 10.5 before first pitch. Humberto Castellanos was rocked by the Dodgers in his last start and the Braves could do the same, especially with a fully healthy roster. Castellanos tends to be involved in games featuring 10 or more runs. That has happened in his two last starts and four of the 10 games he has pitched.
The same can be said about Charlie Morton. Three of his last four starts had run totals over 10 as well as five of the nine games he has started. If you care to delve deeper into the data, take a look at the expected statistics for both the Atlanta and Arizona batters. Most of the key players are due to positive regression with SLG and wOBA. I expect a 7-6 or 8-7 finale
Houston Astros – Oakland Athletics Under 6.5 runs (-105)
Here we have the opposite thing happening when comparing this game to the one in Arizona. Both starting pitchers have been superb and the Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher’s haven. Frankie Montas and Cristian Javier both rank near the top of the rankings in the table above and the A’s simply cannot hit. Of course, the Astros can pop off at any time but Montas has been lights out this year. If you view his game log, he has been involved in several games where the run total was six or fewer runs. Sadly the A’s have lost all five games this month when Montas started but only one of those five games exceeded six runs. For April, three of Montas’s five starts also featured just six or fewer runs.
As for Javier, only two of his nine starts had run totals of seven or more runs. He has phenomenal K metrics with his four-seamer and slider (easily his two most popular pitch types), which generate 30.4% and 33.8% whiff rates, respectively. On the flip side, the A’s wOBA against the four-seamer is awful. It’s even worse against the slider. This could be a 2-0 or 3-0 victory for Houston in what will probably be a very empty Coliseum tonight.
There you have it. Trust the data and we should have another perfect day. Great way to end a very profitable month!
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)