Bets of the Day — May 28

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Friday gives us 14 games to choose from with just one afternoon game. Weather will be worth monitoring tonight as several games could potentially be impacted by rain including Washington, Boston, Cleveland, and New York. 

 

Toronto at Cleveland Run Line

 

Toronto over Cleveland is pretty simple. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been his usual efficient self with a sharp 21.8% K-BB% through his first nine turns. Meanwhile, Cleveland is currently fielding a bleak looking lineup that doesn’t have much power especially after losing Franmil Reyes to the IL. Even with Reyes, the Indian’s offense has failed to impress with a team wOBA of just .294 (24th) for the whole season. You don’t need me to ramble on about the Blue Jays and their lineup right now led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The top half of their lineup can do a lot of damage in a blink. For the Indians, Eli Morgan will be making his debut, he seems to profile more as a fifth starter type. He does have an interesting changeup, nevertheless a debut against a lineup like the Blue Jays seems less than ideal. The weather tonight in Cleveland won’t help the offense as it’ll be chilly and windy but, I’m still siding with the Toronto bats to put up just enough runs against the rookie here to back what has been a strong Ryu against a weak Cleveland lineup. 

Pick: Toronto -1.5 (+105 DraftKings)

 

St. Louis at Arizona Total Runs

 

Arizona is one of the few spots tonight that looks really conducive to offense in terms of weather with game time temperatures hovering in the mid 90s. The roof at Chase Field has been open for the past few games too which always adds to the offensive upside. Madison Bumgarner has been very effective to his credit, but if you go back to 2019, he’s allowed a .214 ISO to opposing RHB. The Cardinals, meanwhile, do have some decent righty power with the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill. Following Bumgarner will be a D-Back’s pen that hasn’t been effective, their relievers thus far combining for a 5.23 ERA (4th worst). For the Cardinals, Johan Oviedo has just a 5.9% K-BB% through his first four appearances. Last year, he also allowed a .396 xwOBA to opposing hitters across 24.2 IP. And the Cardinal’s pen has been shaky too, with their relievers combining for a league worst 8.9% K-BB%. So there would appear to be some fairly decent offensive potential on both sides of this game and in a favorable venue for runs too. 

Pick: Over 9.5 (-104 DraftKings) 

 

Atlanta at New York Run Line

 

The Mets/Braves game is an interesting one in that both of these pitchers have been remarkably similar this year. Taijuan Walker’s K-BB% is 13.3%. Ian Anderson’s K-BB% is pretty close at 15.2%. And both have an identical xERA of 3.85. They even have identical xwOBA allowed of .312. The deciding factor is the lineup. It’s no secret the Met lineup right now is rough to say the least. Yesterday’s three-hole hitter was Billy McKinney, who the Mets had just acquired in a deal with the Brewers. That more or less tells you all you need to know. Even though they lost Marcell Ozuna, the Braves lead baseball in home runs at 80. The Mets have just 33 on the year ahead of only the Pirates. Walker has pitched really well but given how far apart these two teams are offensively right now the run line makes for a tempting wager. 

Pick: ATL -1.5 (+120 DraftKings) 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 11-13-0

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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