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Bets of the Day – May 23rd

Tyler Gentile previews some plays he likes for Monday

It’s just another manic Monday (Woah, woah)
I wish it was Sunday (Woah, woah, woah, woah)
‘Cause that’s my fun day (Woah, woah)
It’s just another manic Monday.

Here are some MLB bets to hopefully make your Monday better.

 

Cardinals Moneyline (-120) vs. Blue Jays

 

I don’t typically bet too many teams on the Moneyline, but I swear every time I do, it is the Cardinals. In a battle of the birds, the Red Birds welcome the struggling Blue Jays to St. Louis. Toronto’s bats have been ice-cold (28th in wRC+) in May while the Cardinals (second) are on the opposite side of the spectrum.

This bodes well for Miles Mikolas, who has done a terrific job of suppressing hard contact (top 88% hardhit%) and runs (1.68 ERA). Despite coming off seven shutout innings in his last start, José Berríos still has a 4.83 ERA that should be even worse, as indicated by his 6.82 xERA.

Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have done a fantastic job over the last week keeping the back-end of the bullpen fresh in their mop-up duties as well. The Jays’ relievers haven’t had that luxury as of late. With the two teams trending in two different directions, give me the Cardinals as slight home favorites.

 

Zack Wheeler over 6. 5Ks (+100) vs. ATL

 

After starting the year without many punchouts, Zack Wheeler has rebounded back to his old ways with seven or more strikeouts in four straight starts. He cleared this 6.5 line in 20 of 32 starts last year and was 4-1 to the over when facing Atlanta.

Wheeler gets his familiar foe tonight, and they have been dreadful against righties with the second-highest strikeout rate (25.9%) and tied for the fifth-worst wRC+ (81) over the last 14 days. Atlanta also has the fifth-highest O-Swing%. Pairing that with Wheeler being in the top 90th percentile in chase rate should result in plenty of Ks for the Phillies starter.

 

Leans

 

I’m always seeing people talk about their leans on Twitter, so why not lean into this myself? Chad Kuhl in a revenge game piques my interest since he’s facing the Pirates. I kind of like the over on 4.5 strikeouts for him since Pittsburgh strikes out at the fourth-highest rate against RHP, and he gets the reverse Coors Field effect. Kuhl has recorded four or more strikeouts in six of seven starts this year.

The total base props on Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are intriguing considering their numbers against Jordan Lyles. Stanton is 7-for-15 with two doubles and a home run, while Donaldson is 7-for-13 with a double and triple. The Yankees are pretty familiar with Lyles by now since they have somehow seen him three times this year already. Their team total sits at 4.5 runs at -125.

As I already noted, Wheeler shouldn’t have much trouble with Atlanta’s offense. As a result, the Phillies should be able to find a win with him leading the way. Lefty Tucker Davidson toes the mound for Atlanta, and Philadelphia has the fourth-highest wRC+ (130) vs. LHP over the last 14 days. The Phillies are -130 road favorites.

Trea Turner is on a roll with a 14-game hitting streak. He has recorded two or more total bases in 10 of his last 14 games and is 20-for-55 with six doubles and one homer over this span.

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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