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Bets of the Day – May 13th

Friday the 13th is just like any other day.

We’ve got a fantastic slate of matchups tonight folks. Some might say if you open your eyes, there’s a bet to be made on every single game. Others might tell you, that’s what a degenerate sounds like. Do you want to know what I say? I say let’s have a day on this absolutely special Friday the 13th.

This day is no different than any other day unless you let that unlucky mumbo-jumbo creep into the walls of your brain. So don’t let that thought of doubt and fear take control of you and your bets. It’s not like you’re out there swinging the bat, throwing the ball, running the bases, you know what I mean?! Let’s have a day!

 

Pablo López over 5.5 Ks -130 vs MIL

 

I’d let Pablo López be the godfather to my unborn child. There, I said it. The composure and grace he brings to a mound, along with the disgusting changeup he possesses, brings me so much joy, and I know he’d be a great role model to my kid. Pablo is breaking out this year, and no I’m not saying that he has acne. Look at that face. Clear as day.

Lopez hasn’t allowed a run and has racked up at least 6 punchouts in four of his six starts. The Brew Crew are fond of the K as well and have the fourth-worst K% (25.2%) against RHP over the last 30 days. The pitchers who have found 6 Ks or more against Milwaukee aren’t the names you would think of when talking about strikeouts; Vladimir Gutierrez, JT Brubaker, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Hendricks all cleared this mark. Pablo will as well today.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 Ks -130 vs BAL

 

Before you even ask, the answer is no. I do not want Eduardo Rodriguez to be the godfather to my other child. Sorry Eduardo, your neckbeard is not coming anywhere near my other unborn child. Hell no. However, if you get these 6 strikeouts tonight, I might change my mind. Baltimore’s bats won’t come close to anything E-Rod throws tonight either.

With a 27.5% K%, the Orioles have the second-worst strikeout rate against lefties. Over the last 14 days when facing southpaws, they also have the fourth-lowest wRC+ (66) while maintaining that same K rate. Eduardo has definitely drawn a very difficult share of opponents in his first six starts facing the Astros, Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox to start his year. He has still found a way to at least 5 strikeouts in five of those six games, and for what it’s worth, has had at least 5 strikeouts in 29 of his last 35 starts dating back to last year. In a plus matchup against some familiar foes, he should find at least 6 strikeouts tonight.

 

Framber Valdez over 17.5 outs -120 vs WSH

 

Another pitcher prop?! Yep, can’t stop won’t stop. Framber Valdez is the perfect candidate for this kind of prop because he is not someone vying for the K every at-bat. He mows batters down by getting them to roll over his bowling ball of a sinker that he throws 53% of the time.

Batters have a really hard time squaring Valdez up, as evident by his 96th-percentile Barrel%. He also has the third highest groundball rate (77.7%) out of all starters and guess what? When facing left-handed pitching, the Nationals have the third-highest groundball rate and sixth-lowest wRC+. They also refuse to work the count and see the second fewest pitches (3.77) per plate appearance. Since 2021, Valdez has pitched at least six innings in 20 of 28 starts, and has cleared this threshold in four of six so far this year. It’s like a perfect storm!!!

 

Yankees Half Time/Full Time -115 vs CHW

 

Be scared world. The big bad Bronx Bombers are making sure that nickname holds some truth. Take a look at this tweet and tell me they’re not scorching hot. I dare you to try. Gerrit Cole will be on the bump tonight, and has definitely turned a corner over his last three starts after his dreadful first three. We’re talking just one earned run and 25 strikeouts in 19 innings for the Yankees ace. The White Sox haven’t been the offense that we were all expecting and have the fifth worst wRC+ (83) vs RHP this season. They have turned it around more recently, but against Cole that shouldn’t matter.

Vince Velasquez pitches for the White Sox and he is a gas can waiting to be bombed by this Yankees lineup. He has a xERA of 5.75 and ranks in the bottom 12th-percentile in xwOBA and Barrel%. The Yanks should be able to find the lead after 5 innings with the pitching matchup on hand, and I think they’ll be just fine at holding onto that lead in order to cash this bet. The bullpen is well-rested and is the fourth best in terms of xFIP (3.38). If you’re concerned they won’t have the lead after 5 innings, then take the Yankees on the run line at -110. Winners of 18 of their last 21 games, expect more of the same from New York tonight.

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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