Wow, today is the last day of June. Hard to believe. We are officially three months into the baseball season and things are starting to heat up, including the tempers of players as we have seen multiple brawls over the past week. Th approaching All-Star Break may be much needed for some teams and while I have had a successful season in the betting department, I haven’t been as accurate as I would like over the past couple weeks. We will try to turn that around today.
This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).
Yankees @ Astros Moneyline
On Thursday we get a brief one game rematch of the epic series from this past weekend between the Yankees and Astros. While the weekend series was in the Bronx, this one game dalliance will take place in Houston and I love the surging ‘Stros as home underdogs. Winners of 11 of their last 15 games, Houston has utilized a healthy balance of quality pitching and powerful bats to dominate opponents. It was some incredible pitching, including a no-hitter, that fueled the Astros in their wins. I certainly don’t think Luis Garcia is going to no-hit New York, but he pitched decently against a powerful Mets lineup in his last start (5 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks) and even better in his previous start at the Rangers (6 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks).
I know what you’re thinking. But Kyle, won’t Houston likely be without Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña after their injuries yesterday? Very true, but there is still plenty of juice in the Houston bats with the likes of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, who is showing signs of turning his season around. This bet certainly isn’t for the faint of heart, but I think getting the Astros at +110 at home against any team is quality value.
Pick: Astros ML (+110 DK, +110 FD)
Reds @ Cubs O/U 10 Runs
Graham Ashcraft and Kyle Hendricks are the starting pitchers for Cincinnati and Chicago when they face off on Thursday and I’m sorry, but 10 runs just seems like way too high of a total here. Ashcraft started off his MLB career very well for the Reds and then after two subpar starts pitched a gem on Friday going 8 innings with just 2 ER and 8 Ks against San Francisco. A rare bright spot on this season for the Reds, I like Ashcraft to hold the Cubs in check. Hendricks has also had an up and down season for Chicago, but he was also way up in his last start with 7.1 shutout innings against St. Louis. While both offenses have been a little better of late, they are both still in the bottom half of the league over the last two weeks in wRC+ and even that is significantly better than their season-long numbers. I just don’t think these offenses are good enough to put double-digit runs on the board against two actually quality pitchers.
Pick: UNDER 10 Runs (-105 DK, -104 FD)
Bryan Reynolds O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The Milwaukee Brewers have a lot of quality starting pitching on their roster, but unfortunately for them Adrian Houser really isn’t one of them. Houser has allowed under 3 ER just once in his last 6 starts and he has allowed 5 ERs three times in that span. He faces an improved Pirates team today and that includes Bryan Reynolds, who is coming off of a 3 HR (all from the left side) game on Wednesday in a wild game against the Nationals. Reynolds has been on fire over the past month with a .330/.376/.613 slash line that includes 8 HR and a .283 ISO. In his career, Reynolds has a HR and 8 total bases in 15 at-bats against Houser. This looks like a no-brainer to me, take Reynolds over 1.5 total bases and I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to sprinkle a little HR action on him.
Pick: Reynolds OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 DK, -110 FD)
Logan Gilbert to Record a Win
Betting on Logan Gilbert has failed me in this article recently, but I believe in the 25-year old enough to go back to him here. It very much helps that he is facing the lowly Oakland Athletics and their woeful 76 wRC+ on the season. Surprisingly, Gilbert has yet to face Oakland this season and I think that is a huge benefit to the budding star RHP. His mound opponent is Adrian Martinez, who, if I’m being honest, doesn’t scare me much at the Major League level. Winners of 7 of their last 9 games, including a 3-game sweep of Oakland, the Mariners are starting to pick things up thanks to their young superstars like Gilbert and Julio Rodríguez. This feels like about as safe of a +140 bet as there can get.
Pick: Gilbert to Record a Win (+140 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 42-42
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $541.52
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)