Happy Friday everyone! What a great weekend for baseball with a 15-game all evening slate kicking it off. One quick thing as this is my first time contributing to this daily article: I’ll never recommend a wager at worse than -120, and usually I’m looking for plus money. The reason is simple – baseball is so volatile on a daily basis that there isn’t really enough of a favorite on a given day to warrant forcing myself to hit 60% or more just to break even. Let’s get to it!
Washington F5 +140 vs Texas
Paolo Espino, after seven consecutive relief appearances and giving up a single run twice in 11 prior appearances, was moved into the starting rotation two outings ago. He gave up a single run vs Milwaukee in his first start in 3 2/3 IP and 2 ER in 5 IP vs Philadelphia a week ago today. I look for him to go at least five innings this evening vs a Rangers lineup that ranks 24th in MLB in OPS vs right handed pitching.
On the other side, Dane Dunning started the season nicely posting a 3.38 ERA in his first six starts including one run outings vs both Atlanta and the New York Yankees in 13 2/3 combined inning April 30 and May 8. Since, he’s given up 5 ER in three of his past eight starts and four in another. He’s been especially bad vs left handed bats, so I like Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Luis García, and company to put some runs on the board backing Espino.
Kansas City -1.5 +145 vs Oakland
The Oakland Athletics are dead last in MLB vs Right handed pitching with an abysmal .580 team OPS. It’s really that simple here. Now, Zack Greinke has not been good most of this season, but he couldn’t be returning in a better spot, and the Royals bullpen which has been good is rested after the day off Thursday. The wind looks be blowing in from right field as well helping Greinke more vs lefty hitters than it will Cole Irvin vs righties.
Some don’t like giving the run and a half for home teams as they will either not hit in the bottom of the final inning or win by one run (barring a walk off homerun). I will take the plus money with the belief to win this bet the Royals have to score four plus runs and even if Oakland gets to Greinke for a couple that’ll be all they get.
LA Dodgers -0.5 F5 -105 vs Atlanta
Ian Anderson has given up four plus runs in four of his past six starts, the Dodgers are first in MLB in OPS vs right handed pitching, and Julio Urías has given up over 2 ER in just two of 12 starts since his two inning initial outing of the season – going five plus innings in every start since as well. The strikeouts that were eluding him early in the season have been there for Urías of late with 28 in 23 1/3 IP over his past four starts. Yes, Atlanta has been good vs left handed pitching, but I am much more confident in Dodger bats vs recent Anderson than Atlanta vs recent Urías.
Considering….
It’s really difficult passing on plus money as good as the Mets lineup and Taijuan Walker have been this season, even facing all-world Sandy Alcantara. The issue is the Marlins have been one of the best hitting teams in the league both at home and vs right handed pitching, so I may actually pivot to a small dabble on Miami -1.5 at +150 and hope Alacantara does shut New York down.
For reasons in the writeups above, I also like over 1.5 total bases for Josh Bell +130, Max Muncy +130, and Michael A. Taylor +140.
Good luck tonight and enjoy the games!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)