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Bets of the Day – June 23rd

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

A plethora of matinee games greet us on this Thursday and I can’t wait to soak it all in. The 2022 MLB season is flying by and we need to cherish these days while we have them. I choose to cherish them by providing you generous readers with four bets that will probably maybe make you money today.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Phillies @ Padres Run Line

 

The final game on today’s slate, the matchup between Philadelphia and San Diego pits two teams that are coming off completely opposite series’. The Phillies are about to play their 8th consecutive road game and were just swept in a brief two-game series in Texas. The Padres on the other hand just began a home stretch with an impressive three-game sweep of Arizona. Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove and his 8-0 record takes the mound for the Padres and he looks to continue rolling along as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Ranger Suárez is slated to start for Philadelphia and although he has been decent of late, this is going to be a tough matchup against a team in San Diego that is top 10 in baseball against LHP (112 wRC+). This just feels like a game where San Diego pokes across a couple of runs early and just cruises to an easy victory on the back of big Joe Musgrove.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (+145 DK, +140 FD)

 

Astros @ Yankees O/U 8 Runs

 

Framber Valdez vs. Jameson Taillon is maybe the best pitching matchup of the day, which means I have no doubt that this goes over the 8-run total. That is because the Yankees and Astros have the #1 and #3 offenses in baseball over the last two weeks (NYY – 141 wRC+, HOU – 139 wRC+). Yordan Alvarez continues to have an absolute monster season and would probably be in the AL MVP talks if some guy named Shohei Ohtani wasn’t running away with it. Michael Brantley and Alex Bregman have started to pick things up at the plate of late and Kyle Tucker has a HR in two at-bats against Taillon, who will have a tough time stacking outs on Thursday.

Valdez will have no easier time against this juggernaut Yankee lineup that has been absolutely relentless this season. We all know what Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton provide at the plate, but lately, it has been Gleyber Torres (206 wRC+) and Anthony Rizzo (5 HRs in last two weeks) that have powered the Pinstripes. Despite the talent that Framber and Jameson possess, they just aren’t quite of the elite caliber yet to hold these two offenses under 8 runs.

Pick: OVER 8 Runs  (-110 DK, -110 FD)

 

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run

 

With temperatures expected in the 90s and a solid wind blowing out, I am taking my chances on a HR bet here and who better to throw my money on than Austin Riley. The 7th place finisher in NL MVP voting last year, Riley has shown that his success was not a fluke with 18 HRs already on the season. It has been a full 8 days since Riley hit his last homer and that just means the 25-year-old is due for one here. Add in that he has a HR in three career at-bats against Giants starter Alex Wood and I am feeling really good about this one. Make sure if you are going to follow my lead and place a bet on Riley to do it on FanDuel where his odds are +370 compared to the +270 you are getting on DraftKings.

Pick: Riley to Hit a Home Run (+270 DK, +370 FD)

 

Robbie Ray to Record a Win

 

We don’t even need to go into any baseball statistics to see the value in this bet here. The Seattle Mariners are a solid favorite against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday with moneyline at -130. And yet, Frankie Montas is +160 to record a win while Robbie Ray is +175 to record a win. Um, what? Somebody tell me how that makes sense. The answer is it doesn’t and I’d be taking Ray to record a win just off that information alone.

But we here at Pitcher List pride ourselves on our baseball knowledge so I will give you some numbers to back up this bet as well. Ray has looked like the guy who won a Cy Young award last year over his last two starts, going 14 combined innings with just 1 ER and 14 Ks. He faces an A’s lineup that has been by far the worst in baseball over the last two weeks with a 52 wRC+. Montas on the other hand has allowed 8 ERs over his last two starts spanning 11 innings and he faces a Mariners lineup that has scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. This is a no-brainer.

Pick: Ray to Record a Win (+175 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 40-38-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $715.61

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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