My general philosophy with these bet recommendations is to try and get plus odds (+100 and higher) because I am always looking for the best values for the best payouts. Anybody can recommend a bet at -150, that’s easy. But today I am going to switch up that philosophy and play it a little conservative, just looking for wins. However, if you are feeling a little saucy, I wouldn’t blame you for parlaying all of these for a big payday (pretty good chance I end up doing that because I am a sucker for a big parlay).
This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).
Blue Jays Total Runs O/U 4.5
The Toronto Blue Jays are starting to realize their vast potential and they have been the hottest offense in baseball over the last two weeks (161 wRC+). Tyler Wells takes the mound for the Baltimore Orioles and although he has pitched fairly well this season (3.86 ERA), his strikeout rate does not inspire a lot of confidence (15.3%) and he is clearly pitching over his head (4.69 xFIP). Considering the Blue Jays have scored at least 5 runs in 16 of their last 20 games, the over here seems like a fairly easy bet. Considering that Kevin Gausman is pitching for Toronto, I wouldn’t blame you for throwing in all kinds of bets on the Blue Jays. But for this, we are going to play it safe and take the Blue Jays offense to reach 5 runs.
Pick: Blue Jays OVER 4.5 Runs (-140 DK, -120 FD)
Angels @ Mariners O/U 0.5 Runs in the 1st Inning
The best pitching matchup of the day is going down late night between Shohei Ohtani and George Kirby. The Angels’ struggles offensively have been well documented of late as it resulted in the firing of Joe Maddon, but the Mariners have not been much better as they have been shutout in two of their last four games. After a pair of shaky starts, Ohtani got back on track on the mound last time out against the Red Sox, allowing just 1 run in 7 innings. While Kirby has had an up-and-down start to his rookie season, there is no doubting that the Elon product has tremendous upside. While both of these AL West offenses have struggled lately, there is still too much talent there to be too confident in a full game under. However I have no problem banking on a clean first inning from both of these starters who should come out firing their best stuff right out the gate.
Pick: UNDER 0.5 (-150 DK, -130 FD)
Rhys Hoskins O/U 1.5 Total Bases
I’m not sure which of these last two bets I am more confident in, but they are both guaranteed LOCKS in my book. Not many hitters have been hotter than Rhys Hoskins over the last two weeks as his 244 wRC+ ranks 2nd in baseball. On Thursday he gets Nationals’ lefty Patrick Corbin, which is more great news because Hoskins is also in the top 10 in baseball against southpaws with a 181 wRC+. A perfect storm is colliding for Hoskins, who is also slugging .654 against Corbin in 26 career at-bats. 1.5 total bases is easy work for the 29-year old first baseman and if you wanted to tease it up a little bit I wouldn’t call you crazy.
Pick: Hoskins OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-135 DK, -130 FD)
Zack Wheeler O/U 5.5 Strikeouts
While the Washington Nationals are not the easiest team to strike out in baseball, 5.5 strikeouts is just too low of a prop for Zack Wheeler. After a shaky start to the season resulting from an abbreviated Spring Training, Wheeler has been back to his dominant self over his last eight starts. In those eight starts, he has yet to record fewer than 7 strikeouts and those have come against much more potent offenses than the Nationals’. There is a reason it is at -140, but this is just too easy to pass up.
Pick: Wheeler OVER 5.5 K’s (-140 DK, -142 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 37-33-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $974.87
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)