Alright, everyone. I’ve got an update on why Tony La Russa is still employed, and why he was employed in the first place if you didn’t already know. There’s not a whole bunch like that I love on today’s card, but I’ve mustered up a few plays for the article!
Ian Anderson over 17.5 outs (-105) vs WSH
Alright, class, we’ve been down this street a time or two before, haven’t we? What have we all learned? The Nationals do not have patience, that’s right! With the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.78) and subpar walk rate (7.5%) and wRC+ (98) against righties, Washington is an easy target for these out props. Of course, it takes two to tango, but Ian Anderson and his changeup seem capable of maneuvering their way around this lineup.
The Nationals have the 2nd worst rating against the changeup at -10.3, and that is Anderson’s go-to secondary offering which he throws 31% of the time. If he has that pitch working he should be able to keep Washington’s batter off-balance and produce plenty of groundballs. They lead the league in groundball rate and Anderson is in the upper echelon of starting pitchers in terms of groundballs. The Nationals roster has barely faced him, and he has gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts.
Cristian Javier over 5.5 strikeouts (-118) vs TEX
Despite having only cleared this mark in two of his seven starts this year, Javier is in the top 88 percentile in K%. A lot of that is in thanks to the five appearances he’s had coming out of the bullpen, but it’s not like he was throwing any harder in those instances as his average velocity remained the same. Over the last 145 innings or so since last year, Javier has a K/9 around 11.40.
He mowed down nine Rangers a few weeks ago and owns a 27.4% strikeout rate in 73 plate appearances when facing them. They also have the fifth-highest punchout% (25.5%) against righties over the last 30 days and own the second-highest swinging-strike rate (13.2%) this year. Javier has the 13th best SwStr% on his fastball and is in the top 78% in xwOBA. SaberSim thinks he will get at least six punchouts tonight as well with a 5.94 strikeout projection. I’m intrigued enough by this matchup and history that I’ll also be doing a ladder play. It’s +145 for seven strikeouts, +300 for eight, +630 for nine, and +1285 for 10 punchouts.
Leans/Notes
Kole Calhoun is 7-10 with three homers and a double against Javier. Aside from him, Javier has dominated the rest of that lineup, but Calhoun is +135 (FanDuel) to record two or more total bases tonight…
Alex Wood’s K prop sits at 5.5 juiced to the under at -145. He hasn’t exceeded more than five strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts this year, and the Royals have the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.7%) against LHP this year.
Lance Lynn makes his return to the mound for the first time this year. The White Sox are just -130 favorites facing Rony García who ranks in the bottom-one percentile in hardhit%, xSLG, and Barrel%.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)