The baseball gods have rewarded us for what they put us through yesterday. Following a painful slate of games that had me betting on Dylan Cease walks (maybe an underrated market though) and Josh Winckowski, we are blessed with a plethora of quality pitchers to attack. Like a child waiting for Santa on Christmas Eve, I was up late last night in excitement for Friday’s games and covered a few spots I liked on Twitter. Unfortunately, a couple of those lines have dried up and are unplayable in my eyes, but I still see a few plays I like at this moment.
Luis Castillo over 5.5 strikeouts (-130) vs TB
At this point, it should be no secret that I love Luis Castillo. I swear I’ve featured him in these articles every single time he starts on a Monday or Friday, and it’s for good reason. They keep setting this line at 5.5 and he keeps getting at least six punchies. He has done so in seven of his last eight starts, and faces off against a Rays team strikes out a lot against righties with the 4th highest K% (24.7%) this season.
Tampa rates poorly against Castillo’s arsenal as well, and are 21st in wFB (-10.6), 19th in wSL (-8.3), and 24th in wCH (-4.2). The Reds also seem willing to let him work deeper into his pitch count lately as he is averaging 107 pitches per start over his last seven. Weather is a bit of a concern at Great American Ball Park, so keep that in mind before placing your wager, but hopefully a cash-out option is available with your book.
Shane McClanahan over 7.5 strikeouts (+100) vs CIN
Rain, rain, go away, we want to bet on these studs. We missed the best of this number when FanDuel had him listed at 6.5 earlier, but I’m still willing to back the AL Cy Young favorite plus money. Shane McClanahan has seven or more strikeouts in 15/16 starts this year and has at least eight punchouts in 10/16. The Reds have the 2nd highest strikeout rate (28.2%) over the last two weeks, and guys like Keegan Thompson (eight Ks) and Taijuan Walker (nine) have had their way with this lineup over this span.
I think the Irishman (this guy needs a nickname) can replicate what Max Scherzer (11), Charlie Morton (10), and Spencer Strider (11) did, however. Over at FanDuel he is +200 for nine or more strikeouts, +370 for 10+, and +750 for 11+. I’m going to ladder him up here, and pray for no rain. I don’t think I need to explain how good McClanahan is anymore, do I? Check out his player page here. BRIGHT RED EVERYWHERE. Obviously, if the forecast looks treacherous closer to first pitch this is a cashout on both Castillo and Shane.
Lucas Giolito over 1.5 walks (+100) vs DET
I alluded to this in the intro, walks are a strange thing to bet on, but money doesn’t have opinions, so let’s make some here. If he qualified Lucas Giolito would have the 6th highest walk rate (8.9%) among all starting pitchers. He has really struggled with his control throughout this season having allowed two or more walks in 10/14 starts.
His 3.46 BB/9 will square off against the Tigers, who have been seeing the ball well over the past week or so. Or maybe the starters they have faced can’t control the strike zone? Either way, the last eight starters to face them have all allowed at least two free passes per game. As division rivals, Detroit is familiar with Giolito’s tricks and turns having seen him for a collective 191 plate appearances. SaberSim thinks he will have 2.18 walks tonight pitching at home.
Alright, that’s going to be it for me today. The other plays I posted last night with playable lines are Sonny Gray over 15.5 outs (-120) against the Rangers, and Chris Bassitt over 5.5 strikeouts (-115) vs the Marlins. Please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if any of y’all want to talk about anything baseball-related. Best of luck today!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)