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Bets of the Day – July 6th

Pitcher props prodding their way to your eyeballs per usual with Tyler.

Shame on us. We haven’t posted a betting article in four days. Now, there’s a decent chance this has actually worked in your wallet’s favor if you read these, but there’s also a greater than zero chance your blood pressure is also lower, which is boring. I’ll try to make up for it all today with a couple of winners.

 

Cristian Javier to record a win (+110) vs KC

 

This is the first time I’ve dabbled with this type of bet, however, it is of the same ilk as a half-time/full-time wager, which I have done a couple of times here. The best part about this particular bet though is the drastic difference in odds. It is -145 for the Astros to win the first five innings and then go on to win the full game. HA! Nice try books, we read you like one. Let’s take that 55-cent difference and bank on Cristian Javier to continue his recent form of success against the Royals.

Javier has recorded a win in three straight starts, having allowed just two earned runs across 21 innings with an insane 32 strikeouts along the way! On the season he ranks in the top 94% in xwOBA/xERA and top 95% in K%. The Royals do not strike out very much and the over sits at 6.5 at around -130. I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking that with his recent form, but I’m not taking it personally. Instead, I like him to suppress the bats of the Royals, which shouldn’t be too difficult a task. They are 23rd in wRC+ (94) over the last 30 days, are without Salvador Perez, and Bobby Witt Jr. might be out today as well.

Obviously, it takes two sides to get a win, and we need Houston’s offense to do their part, but with Brad Keller on the mound in Houston the Royals should wave the white flag already. He’s in the bottom 36% in xwOBA and the ‘Stros have the 2nd best wRC+ (127) against righties over the last month.

Ultimately this bet is just an overly complicated way to say the Astros will win and Javier will dominate, but he’s likely not going more than six innings. Luckily for him and his W statistic, he’s got a bullpen that should have no qualms holding onto the lead he leaves with. Houston ranks 3rd in xFIP (3.41) over the last 30 days while Kansas City is 29th (4.86). The Royals have the 2nd worst record in the American League this year ahead of only the Oakland A’s.

 

Luis Severino over 17.5 outs (-135) 2u & over 6.5 strikeouts (+100) vs PIT

 

Put some respect on the man’s name. After nursing injuries over the past couple of years, Luis Severino is back folks. Ranking in the top 85% in xwOBA/xERA/K%, Sevy shouldn’t have any issues with this Pirates offense tonight in Pittsburg. In fact, it should go pretty swimmingly if you ask me. With a lineup riddled with rookies, you shouldn’t expect much. Over the last 30 days, the Buccos have the 2nd highest K% (26.1%) and 7th worst wRC+ (91).

Coming off of back-to-back six-inning performances against the Astros, I have a hard time seeing how this outs line is priced the same as it was against them. Severino has gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight outings and has recorded seven strikeouts in seven of his last nine. The benchmark of a quality start is to go at least six innings and with the matchup on hand, I’d argue the outs prop should be juiced much higher than it currently is. Sevy should get plenty of punchouts on his slider which is his main putaway pitch (34.5%). Pittsburgh is 25th in weighted runs (-16.1) against that pitch.

 

Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts (-130) vs NYY

 

Okay, now that I’m done bashing the Pirates, let’s try to give their pitcher a little love. Mitch Keller has racked up four or more strikeouts in nine of his 13 starts this year, and has cleared this in five of his last six. The Bronx Bombers have gotten back to their old strikeout ways as of late. They have the 6th highest K% (24.9%) over the last two weeks and seven of the last nine righty starters to face them have recorded 6+ strikeouts.

When you’ve got big swing and miss guys like Josh Donaldson (26% K%), Aaron Judge (25%), Giancarlo Stanton (26.4%), Matt Carpenter (28.9%), and Joey Gallo (39.7%), roaming your lineup, it’s easy to see the strikeouts piling up. Even if Keller gets hit around a bit, I think he can get at least four strikeouts against this lineup. Teammate José Quintana had seven against them last night.

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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