The trade deadline rapidly approaches and my hope is that as we move into August, my betting abilities will magically return as this is now several articles in a row that I have produced a net loss. However, do not lose faith Pitcher List community, we will get this fixed and it starts with Monday’s relatively short slate:
Braves @ Mets Total Runs O/U 6.5
The Braves and Mets embark on a double-header on Monday and in Game 1 we have young Kyle Muller going against veteran Marcus Stroman. While both of these offenses are still plenty dangerous, they are each dealing with prominent injuries and didn’t exactly light it up over the weekend. Atlanta went off for 15 runs on Saturday but scored just 1 run in each of the games on Friday and Sunday. New York meanwhile scored a modest 11 runs during their three games against Toronto, relying on their pitching to take two out of three.
Muller hasn’t been perfect since coming back from AAA, but he has still been able to limit the damage with 4 ER in 9.2 IP despite amassing 7 walks. In his major league debut, Muller didn’t allow a hit in 4 innings against the Mets and announced his presence to the league. Stroman has been finding his form for the Mets of late and pitched his best game of the year on Wednesday at Cincinnati, limiting the Reds to just 1 hit and 1 walk in 8 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts. Remember that these double-headers are still just 7 inning games, so I think the 6.5 number is a little high here for two pitchers of this caliber.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-115 DK, -112 FD)
Reds @ Cubs Total Runs O/U 8.5
Another interesting pitching matchup is taking place in Chicago on Monday between veterans Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. Miley has been a consistent presence for a Cincinnati team that is fighting for a playoff spot. The lefty has allowed just 3 ERs over his last three starts, spanning 21 innings. After a rough start to the season, Kyle Hendricks has returned to form for the Cubs and has allowed more than 2 ERs in his last 8 starts. Both of these offenses have struggled to really get going since the All-Star Break, finding themselves in the bottom third of baseball in wRC+ in that time (Reds 95 wRC+, Cubs 89 wRC+). Again, I think the sportsbooks have the number a little too high here, so give me the under.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-110 DK, -114 FD)
Astros @ Mariners First Team to Score and Win
With the Astros facing rookie Darren McCaughan, he of the paltry 18.9 K% in AAA this year, this game is just too good to not have action on. Luis Garcia has been a surprising stabilizing force for Houston’s rotation and has allowed more than 2 ERs just once in his last five starts. However, even the Astros run line is all the way up to -120, which I don’t love. So with the game being in Seattle and the Houston getting first cracks, I like them to score first here and get the win against the Mariners at -110. Seattle has won three consecutive games by a single run and that luck is going to run out against the best team in the American League
Pick: Astros to Score First and Win (-110 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 37-41-2
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$175.50
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)