I am the baseball betting version of the New York Mets, mired in a slump that has taken my net money total from four digits down to a measly $2.70. I’m sure there is a lesson in here somewhere, but I am consciously choosing to ignore it. Here are three ABSOLUTE LOCKS for Monday’s short slate:
Reds @ Indians Alternate Run Line
Don’t look now but Luis Castillo is back to being the ace of the Cincinnati Reds as the team steamrolls its way to the playoffs. Winners of 8 of their last 10 games, the Reds offense is heating up thanks to the likes of Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, and Joey Votto. Opposing Castillo on the mound is Sam Hentges, who has pitched out of the bullpen lately after struggling as a starter earlier in the year. A potent Reds lineup against a taxed and mediocre Indians pitching staff has blowout written all over it. -2.5 is looking like the best of the alternate run lines at +120 and a safe bet on Monday.
Pick: Reds -2.5 (+120 DK, +126 FD)
Jonathan India Total Bases O/U 1.5
Speaking of Cincinnati’s offense, not many hitters have been hotter over the last month than Red’s leadoff man Jonathan India. The 24-year old 2B has a .437 wOBA since the All-Star Break and has a career .414 wOBA against LHP. Couple a mediocre LHP in Hentges with a solid 11 MPH wind out to CF and India should have a good chance to eclipse 1.5 total bases in his first at-bat. I expect a big day overall out of the Reds offense and that begins with the man that has been leading the team’s 19-11 stretch over the last month.
Pick: OVER 1.5 (+125 DK)
Jameson Taillon to Record a Win
The Yankees were criticized a bit for their trade deadline moves, however, they seem to have had a positive effect on the team as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Reigning AL Pitcher of the Month Jameson Taillon takes the mound for New York and he is starting to figure it out after understandably experiencing a shaky start to his Yankee career following two missed years due to injury. The tantalizing righty has won 5 of his last 7 starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in his last 6 starts. Carlos Hernandez and the Royals are headed towards another sub-.500 season and have lost 6 of their last 9. Taillon to pick up a win tonight at +105 presents excellent value especially when compared to the Yankees ML at -180.
Pick: Yes (+105 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 39-45-2
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$2.70
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)