Athletics vs Rangers Alternate Run Line
Chris Bassitt has been phenomenal this year with a 19% K-BB% while holding down opposing batters to a meager .293 xwOBA. Meanwhile, the Rangers offense is, well, not good. For the year, they’ve represented the league’s cellar with a .290 team wOBA. And for fun, they’ve posted a .256 team wOBA over the past 14 days. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics will get to face Mike Foltynewicz who has somehow managed to allow 31 home runs already. Along with the home runs comes a career-worst 16.3% K rate along with a 5.56 xERA, so the A’s should not have a problem providing ample run support for Bassitt.
Pick: OAK -2.5 (+115 DraftKings)
Yankees Total Runs
To his credit, Marco Gonzales has put together a stretch of three effective outings. But, I’m still looking at his season as a whole and the numbers are not favorable to say the least. Overall, his walk rate is a career-worst 8.2%. And he’s allowed an alarming .396 xwOBA and 14% barrel rate, both being in the bottom 1% via baseballsavant. His flyball rate is also up a little too this year at 27.2% (23.8% in 2020). That’s not a great recipe for success heading into Yankee Stadium. What’s more is that Gonzales may not hold much of an advantage against the new lefties here either in Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo considering he’s allowed a .240 wOBA to LHB supported by an alarming .436 xwOBA. Against a powerful lineup at home run-friendly Yankee Stadium, this just looks like a tough assignment for Gonzales who has given up too much loud contact to ignore.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-120 DraftKings)
Logan Webb Total Strikeouts
There’s not a ton of value here, but I just think this is a pretty low bar for Logan Webb to jump. He only had three strikeouts his last time out but I’m giving him a pass in that respect given that it was the Astros, who have, by far, the lowest team K rate vs RHP on the year at 20%. The more important take away was his pitch count as it got to 94 his last time out. Overall, Webb has shown some improved strikeout ability this season with a career-best K rate of 24.1% and is supported by an excellent 30.4% CSW. A shoulder strain has held back his breakout this year but we’ve seen some hints at his ceiling, most notably against the Dodgers back on May 29th (seven K’s, 37.1% CSW) and the Rangers on May 11th (10 K’s, 35.9% CSW). Given that the Brewers have a 24.9% K rate on the year against RHP (seventh highest) I like Webb’s chances of getting five K’s considering that he looks to be fully stretched out now.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-145 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 26-27-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)