Hey all! I’ll be taking the spot for Ryan Amore today while he is out. This piece is my first run at the Bets of the Day column, but it shouldn’t be much of a stretch, as you can find a bunch of my writing on the DFS side. I am a big fan of breaking down splits, platoons and finding the tiniest of edges to help bolster my bankroll over there. So, without further a due, let’s get to those bets.
Astros @ Angels Total Runs O/U 9
It’s not that I believe either offense is bad; well, Houston’s isn’t. But the Angels have been a stagnant offense as of late. In the last 14 games, the Angels have an 85 wRC+ fueled by a .291 wOBA and .115 ISO. That’s… well, not great, Bob! Furthermore, they draw a matchup against Zack Greinke, who’s well regarded as a pitching wizard that suppresses all forms of loud contact with his deceptive style. Even after Greinke exits, the Astros’ bullpen is far more effective than earlier in the season with acquisitions of Kendall Graveman and Yimi Garcia.
On the flip side, the Astros are about to run into a buzzsaw of a starting pitcher known as the Irish Panda, Patrick Sandoval. The dude has been straight filth and wields three pitches with massive CSW rates that should give the Hoston offense all sorts of problems. Do I think runs will be scored? Yes! Will it be over nine runs? No way! Look for this to be a much lower-scoring affair.
Pick: UNDER 9 (-115 DK, -102 FD)
Brewers @ Pirates Run Line
Stack these two lineups on paper, and this run line jumps off the page. The Brewers are a much more potent offense than the Pirates, and it’s not even close. Mitch Keller has only been effective against right-handed bats and struggles to strike out even 16% of lefties. Furthermore, Keller carries a 5.40 SIERA vs. left-handed bats. Even worse, he is allowing a .210 ISO and .490 SLG% to batters from the left side. Okay, I’ve beaten that aspect enough. Well, the Brewers can trot out a large number of lefties and solid bats they’ve acquired. This game will be lopsided, and the Brewers will cruise to an easy victory by a bunch of runs.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-125 DK, -126 FD)
Athletics @ Rangers Run Line
Much like the Brewers/Pirates game, we see two teams going in different directions. We’ve got the Athletics that geared up by adding Starling Marte and backstop Yan Gomes. In contrast, you’ve got the Rangers, who traded away one of the franchise’s most polarizing power hitters, Joey Gallo. Acquisitions aside, the Rangers are one of the worst offenses in the MLB, especially when facing a southpaw. Over the last two weeks, they carry a 39 wRC+. No, that is not an error; I’ve checked twice! The poor showing is a product of only walking 2.3% of the time while also striking out over 23%. When they make contact, it’s pretty slight(.121 ISO) to make matters worse. This game looks like a runaway for Oakland, and 1.5 runs are not nearly enough to stop me from placing a bet.
Pick: Athletics -1.5 (-105 DK, -104 FD)
Dave Swan’s Overall Record: 0-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $0.00
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)