Bets of the Day — April 30

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

New York Mets Total Runs

 

Something’s gotta give for this Mets offense. Last season they were ranked third overall in team wOBA at .347. And then they acquired Francisco Lindor and somehow along the way got worse as they rank 19th with a .300 team wOBA heading into tonight. Perhaps a sage burning ceremony or seance is in order. Jokes aside, this is just a small sample size blip that will right itself eventually as there is simply put, just too much talent here. And that could come tonight in the form of a trip to Citizens Bank Park.

For his career, Chase Anderson’s career K rate of 20.1% is right around league-average. And considering that the veteran’s 6.48 ERA leading into tonight is backed up by a 6.68 xERA along with a .406 xwOBA allowed there looks to be a clear opportunity for the Mets offense to get going. Anderson struggled last season too as he had a rough 7.22 ERA (6.45 xERA), 1.63 WHIP, and .378 xwOBA across 33.2 IP. Going back to 2018 (347.1 IP), Anderson has allowed 67 home runs, good for tenth among all pitchers. So he’s long been susceptible to the home run. On the road at a venue that’s conducive to the long ball, the Mets could be headed for what would be a long-overdue offensive outburst.

Pick: Over 4.5 (+102 DraftKings)

 

New York Yankees Total Runs

 

Similar to the Mets, the Yankees, have gotten off to a slow start offensively as they’re ranked just 16th in team wOBA at .303. That should correct itself at some point. They get an interesting matchup this evening in Tarik Skubal.

There’s no doubting the lefty’s long-term potential, though the version that we’ve seen of him is far from polished. So far, lots of walks (13.6% BB%) and just a 5.7% K-BB%. The thing to note here is that Skubal hasn’t actually started an outing since back on the 15th. He has been in a sort of piggyback role with Michael Fulmer his last two times out. He’s been at around 60 pitches in his last two appearances, so 80 pitches might be a sort of rough expectation for tonight’s game. You’d imagine the Tigers should be very cautious with their prized young lefty in terms of workload.

Whatever the case may be, we should expect to see a lot of the Tiger’s bullpen in this one and that is where the true advantage could be had. So far Detroit relievers have combined for a 5.83 ERA on the year. Given Skubal’s struggles with efficiency early on and considering that it’ll be his first true start in two weeks this could be a perfect storm for the Yankees’ offense to finally go off as they should get some chances to stack up some runs against a suspect Detroit pen that just had to pitch through a doubleheader yesterday. Skubal will also be at a disadvantage from the jump, as we know the Yankees can stack up a lineup full of dangerous RHB. 

Pick: Over 5.5 ( +120 DraftKings)

 

New York Yankees Run Line

 

There might not be a ton of value here, but few things line up better on paper than Gerrit Cole against the Tigers at New York. Fresh off a doubleheader loss to the White Sox, this is quite simply a tough draw for the Tigers. Overall, they’ve struggled offensively to say the least with a 29.6% K rate as a team to go along with a .260 OBP. It’s hard to imagine them stringing together much of anything against the Yankees’ ace. Combine that with a Yankee offense that will be looking to tee off on the Tigers’ pen as mentioned earlier and you have to like the chances of New York winning this one convincingly.

Pick: NYY -1.5 (-159 DraftKings) 

 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 5-7-0

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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