Welcome to the Bets of the Day column for Tuesday. As I have done so far this season, I will feature three bets that will make your Tuesday a great day. FYI, these lines are taken from Westgate Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Check out the triple play action below!
San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line (+100)
I love taking the run line of the favored team on the road, especially when the matchup is lopsided. That means we don’t get stuck with a tied game in the bottom of the 9th and the home team (if favored) just scores the game-winning run. I much prefer going with the run line with the road team who is favored since they can always pop off for a few runs in the top of the 8th or 9th innings in what was a close game.
Another tell-tale sign that you are getting a generous payout on the run line is the delta between the run line payout and the money line for just winning the game. Usually, a team with a -170 money line will have a run line that is +120 or higher. The lower run line, and ultimately a lower delta between the money line and rune line, here for San Diego tells me that Vegas is genuinely worried that the Padres will destroy Cincinnati; and why shouldn’t they be worried? After all, the Reds are 3-13 and recently lost 11 games in a row, all by two runs or more! I suppose that is what happens when you gut your roster in the offseason with Suarez, Castellanos, and Winker all joining new teams this season.
Meanwhile, the Padres have started quite well and Joe Musgrove has pitched like an ace. He cracked 200 Ks last year and is on pace to do so again this year. He should have another strong outing today. The Padres offense could use Fernando Tatis back in the lineup but Manny Macho is playing like an MVP candidate. Also, Jurickson Profar has been a pleasant surprise at the plate with .891 OPS. The Padres should have no problem obliterating the Reds on the road.
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 Run Line (+105)
Baltimore is not a good team and might lose 100 games again this year. They are on pace to lose 100 games with a 6-10 record. However, their 10 losses so far this season have not been all that lopsided. Four of those losses were by just one run so as long as Baltimore keeps the game close, we win our bet. The Yankees, on the other hand, are on pace to win 100 games but when they win, it’s close. Five of those wins were by just one run. Plus they are at home so if the game is close or tied, there is very little chance they win by 2 or more runs unless there is someone on base and the hitter at the plate ends the game with a home run. The delta between the Yankees money line and run is very large so Vegas is tempting you to take the Yankees at -1.5. Don’t fall for that trap. Go with Baltimore at +1.5.
Oakland Athletics–San Francisco Giants Under 6.5 Runs (-120)
Now, this is risky. Playing the under with 6.5 runs can be a dangerous proposition, especially given how potent the Giants offense was on road recently. I am still in disbelief as to how the Giants score so many runs with a bunch of aging veterans but that is a discussion for another time! So why take the under? Because the Giants return home where the outfield is expansive and temperatures are cool. Usually, Oracle Park at this time of year will drop to 50 degrees or lower after the first couple of frames for an evening game. Cool-weather is in the forecast for tonight and the ball simply doesn’t travel that far in such conditions. If you look at the month-by-month splits for the Giants, they don’t hit all that well in April, when the weather is cooler.
Also, Carlos Rodon is on the hill for the Giants who will be an ace for them this season. He is already off to a great start and he goes up against a struggling A’s offense. After a decent start at the plate for Oakland, they have been unable to muster many runs lately. For their last 6 games, they have scored 2 or fewer runs five times. The Giants’ last homestand also featured low scoring. Four of those 6 home games had run totals of 6 or fewer. Right now the payout is -120 so something tells me that the action is going strong towards the under. Don’t be surprised if that line drop to 6 making this play somewhat irrelevant. Get the under on the 6.5 run total right now!
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)