Bets of the Day – April 19th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Monday's best bets around baseball.

A very short slate on Monday but we still have plenty of quality bets for you to put in. Also take a quick glance at that Net Money number down at the bottom there. Not too shabby:

 

Trea Turner Total Runs O/U 0.5

 

Trea Turner is starting to get hot for the lackluster Washington Nationals after popping two HRs on Sunday. In fact, Turner has nine hits in his last five games, but somehow has just scored three runs, even more improbable when you consider that he hit himself in two out those three times. Someone who wreaks as much havoc as Turner does on the bases should be scoring more often than that when he is reaching base multiple times per game.

The Nationals don’t get an easy task on Monday, facing Jack Flaherty for the second time in a week. Flaherty was effective in allowing just one ER against Washington on Tuesday, but he has shown a propensity for allowing baserunners at times. Tuner has scored twice in five plate appearances against Flaherty in his career, including a home run. I am looking for Trea Turner to stay hot here against the Cardinals and make his way around the bases at least once, especially with a nice +105 odds listing.

Pick: OVER 0.5 (+105 DK)

 

Rangers @ Angels Pitcher to Record a Win

 

The Texas Rangers have been one of a handful of teams that I try to target every time I see a moderately competent starting pitcher opposing them and for good reason. Against RHP in 2021, the Rangers have the second-highest K% in the Majors at 30.0% and sport just a 90 wRC+. Texas scored just four runs in three games over the weekend against Baltimore. On Monday they face former Oriole Dylan Bundy, who has thrown a quality start in all three outings this season and continues to showcase the improvements we saw in 2020.

Kohei Arihara is coming off the best start of his brief MLB career, tossing 5.2 shutout innings against Tampa Bay. He is getting an Angels lineup that ranks third in the Majors in wRC+ over the last week (123 wRC+) and is champing at the bit to get back in the box after their previous two games were postponed due to COVID-19 issues with Minnesota. Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Jared Walsh have all been swinging the bat well and will make it tough for Arihara to pitch effectively. I expect the Angels to push across a few runs early, allowing Bundy to work deep into the game with a lead and pick up his first win of the season.

Pick: Dylan Bundy to Record a Win (+110 DK)

 

Brewers @ Padres Total Runs After 3 Innings O/U 1.5

 

One of the late games on the night features the best pitching matchup, with Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff facing off against San Diego’s Joe Musgrove. Both of these teams are coming off tough series losses and will look to their stud pitchers to pick them up on Monday. Musgrove had to battle through four innings in what was surely an emotional game for him going against his former team in Pittsburgh, especially since he was coming off the no-hitter. I fully expect him to bounce back with a strong outing against a mediocre Brewers lineup (80 wRC+) that will be without Christian Yelich. Woodruff has pitched very well since a shaky Opening Day start, as he has allowed just four hits and one ER in 13 IP over his last two starts. Naturally, both of these pitchers have fared better the first time through the lineup, so that is where we are going to focus this bet. Look for Musgrove and Woodruff to cruise through the first three innings.

Pick: UNDER (+114 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 10-3-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$1,023.82

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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