Bets of the Day — April 16

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Orioles Total Runs

 

After being designated for assignment last season by the Braves, Mike Foltynewicz signed with the Rangers on a one-year deal. His fastball velocity has ticked up this season sitting 94 as opposed to 90.9 last year – a good sign. His command, though, has been spotty and that’s evident by his fastball and sinker both carrying an xwOBA over .400 in the early going. You can see it too looking at his heat maps, he’s been sitting in the middle of the zone and so far has been getting away with it. Combine that with his slider that has thus far returned just four whiffs on 57 thrown, and yeah you could see this getting ugly. The Orioles will also get to face a suspect Rangers bullpen that held an xFIP of 5.04 collectively last season making their run total an interesting gamble.

Pick: Over 4.5 (+120 DK)

 

Orioles at Rangers Total Runs

Back to the game in Texas. We mentioned Foltynewicz. Let’s take a look at Jorge López. The past two seasons combined, that’s over 162.2 IP, the Oriole’s righty has put up a dreadful 6.42 ERA and 1.48 WHIP that’s supported by a well below average 8.8% swinging-strike rate and an xwOBA over .350. His xERA has been over 5.40 the past two seasons as well. Basically, he doesn’t miss bats and has a propensity for allowing loud contact. Tonight’s game in Texas features two very suspect pitchers on the mound so we shouldn’t be surprised to see some crooked numbers on both sides of the run column.

Pick: Over 9 (+102 DK)

 

Oakland Athletics to Score 1st and Win

 

The Oakland A’s are strong home favorites this evening (-180) as they continue their series against the Tigers. They’ve got a sizable advantage on the mound today with Frankie Montas who has posted a strong 18.5% K-BB% (29.3% CSW) over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, José Ureña is the owner of a 5.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over his last two seasons and that’s backed by an equally uninspiring 8% K-BB%. The Tigers’ offense last year was one of the worst in baseball with a team wOBA of .303, fourth from the bottom. They’ve been off to a decent start in the early going but Montas has the skills to quell one of the weaker offenses in baseball. The A’s will also have a strong advantage in the pen once both starters leave, as Tigers’ relievers have combined for a 6.65 ERA (5.94 FIP) so far this year. As an aside, I’d also be very interested in Matt Olson‘s prop to hit a home run in this game (player props haven’t been released as of this writing). You couldn’t ask for a better matchup in Ureña who has allowed a .399 wOBA and .245 ISO to opposing LHB the past two seasons while striking them out at just an 11.9% clip.

Pick: Yes ( +140 DK)

 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 2-5-0

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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