Best Bets of the Day: May 4

Nathan Hursh attempts to give you some solid bets today.

Dodgers at Cubs Alternate Run Line

 

Since April 18, the Dodgers have not been playing sound baseball. In that time, they are 4-10. Having said that, in their last game on Sunday, Los Angeles crushed the Brewers 16-4. Perhaps that game will get them going. After their game against the Cubs was postponed yesterday, the two teams will face off today. For the pitching matchup, we have two veterans squaring off in Kyle Hendricks (1-3, 7.54 ERA) and Clayton Kershaw (4-2, 2.09 ERA). Simply put, Hendricks has been dreadful this season. So far, his walk rate (7.4%), although not high, would be a career-high rate. In two of his five starts, Hendricks has given up seven runs. His FIP (8.32) is higher than his ERA. Although he gets to face an offense that has struggled at times over the past two weeks, I believe that Hendricks will have his hands full today.

Kershaw, on the other hand, has been back to his typical future-Hall-of-Fame self. After a rough Opening Day, Kershaw has given up just four earned runs over his last five starts (33 innings pitched). Opponents are slashing .171/.198/.274 against him during that time. I like the Dodgers to win big today.

Pick: Dodgers -2.5 (+185 DK)

 

Dodgers O/U 3.5 runs

 

In the section above, I explained how Hendricks has been largely ineffective this season. Because of that, I do expect the Dodgers to score some runs. That said, if we remove the 16-run explosion from two days ago, the Dodgers’ offense has been pretty bad in the 13 games prior. During that span, they’ve scored four or more runs just five times. That said, I think the Dodgers are due. Even with their struggles over the past two weeks, this team is still third in all of baseball when it comes to runs scored (148). Their offense is still first in on-base percentage (.348). 

A big problem with Los Angeles this season has been a lack of clutch-ness. According to the FanGraphs “clutch” metric, the Dodgers are 24th in all of baseball. That simply will not sustain. The Dodgers will score runs. Today specifically, they should score at least four.

Pick: Dodgers over 3.5 runs (+118 DK)

 

Atlanta at Washington Money Line

 

Atlanta has yet to find their groove this season. Being that they are a team with championship aspirations, they haven’t quite lived up to that expectation yet, with a 12-16 record. As of late, they have struggled by losing four straight games. Tonight, they will play the Nationals, who have won four straight games. As far as the pitching matchup goes, we have Huascar Ynoa (2-1. 2.96 ERA) opposing Joe Ross (2-1, 4.64 ERA). Both of these pitchers have had fairly similar seasons in that they both have been solid except for one terrible start. In four of his five starts, Ynoa has given up two earned runs or less. In the other start though, he allowed six earned. In three out of Ross’s four starts, he’s given up one earned run or less. Unfortunately for him, he gave 10 earned runs in the other start.

In tonight’s game, I expect both pitchers to be effective, but I give the slight edge to Atlanta. Tonight is the night they should end their losing streak.

Pick: Atlanta ML (-134 FD, DK)

 

Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (8-18-1)

Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –996.14

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nathan Hursh

Nathan Hursh has been a baseball fan for as long as he can remember. He grew up in Pittsburgh and loves the Pirates. Don't hold that against him though, he has suffered enough because of it. Find Nathan on Twitter and Instagram at Nathan_Hursh.

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