Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate. It’s time to swing the bat.
Last week was another good one, going 3-for-4 with the only miss being the Home Run call for the Anthony Rizzo. He went 1-for-3 with a BB while Gleyber Torres hit the Yankees’ only home run. Ready to win some money? Let’s get to today’s action.
The Yankees (27-9) visit the Orioles (14-23), who have lost five straight and are missing two of their top hitters in Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays. The Yankees have a juicy matchup against Jordan Lyles, who is a mess. Sure, he gets the friendly confines of Camden Yards (funny to say that now), but Lyles has struggled. His hard contact rate is up to 27.7% and his xERA of 4.37 is telling us he’s not getting any better.
When facing the Yankees on April 26, he gave up six ER. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson are all hitting over .320 and are in the top 20 in wRC+ over the last 10 games. Did I mention Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Yankees? These odds are not that great, but profit is profit. Take the easy money here.
Pick: New York Yankees Money Line (-270) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Giants (22-14) look to sweep the series against the Rockies (17-19) at Coors Field tonight. They have scored a total of 17 runs in the first two games and get their ace, Logan Webb, on the mound. Webb’s strikeout numbers are down this season with a mere 16.2% K rate, but his ground-ball rate is elite at 61.4%. That plays well for Coors, where the balls tend to fly out if they hit that thin air. The Giants got Evan Longoria back from the IL yesterday, which makes their lineup versus lefties even stronger.
LHP Kyle Freeland is throwing for the Rockies, and it could be a Ruf night for him (see what I did there?). This Giants lineup is hitting .412 with 7 HR in 137 AB vs Freeland. In 2021, five of the Giants starters for tonight had a wRC+ over 118 vs. LHP. Did I mention it would be rough for Freeland? Well, Darin Ruf has a 248 wRC+ with a .452 average over the past two weeks, fifth-best in the majors.
Pick: San Francisco Giants Run Line (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Yankees are coming in hot behind the bat of Giancarlo Stanton. I’m taking the Yankees money line today, so if you want to parlay this bet with that, go for it. Stanton leads the Yankees with 16 RBI over their last 10 games, and Lyles is no stranger to giving up runs. Stanton has a 47.7% hard contact rate with a .333 average and a .305 ISO over the past two weeks. Expect the Yankees to score some runs today. Even if Stanton is unlucky, he should still have a good chance to get an RBI on a sacrifice fly.
Pick: Giancarlo Stanton to record an RBI (+105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 3-for-6 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll flourishing. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard.
Bomb squad leader of the day is, you guessed it, Darin Ruf! I mentioned his numbers over the past two weeks, but how about his career numbers vs LHP? He’s hitting .287 with 31 home runs in 562 AB. Ruf also has a home run off Freeland in 11 career at-bats. This game is in Coors Field, so we might see multiple home runs today.
Pick: Darin Ruf to hit a HR (+370) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight, and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 16-8-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $1663.64
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)