Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate. It’s time to swing the bat.
Last week did not get off to a good start after we got word the Yankees/Angels game got postponed. Andrew Vaughn went 0-for-3 with a BB, Hunter Greene escaped Boston without allowing a dinger (he did give up 4 ER in just 3.2 IP) and Mitch White’s leash got extended to five innings allowing him to reach seven strikeouts. Overall it was a losing week as we went 0-for-3, just like Vaughn. But today is a new day and we are going to get back on track. We are still up on the season so let’s continue to build that bankroll! Ready to win some money? Let’s go!
The Toronto Blue Jays (33-22) have finally hit their groove, winning 8 of their last 10 games. Tonight, Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound against the Kansas City Royals (17-37) who have the worst record in baseball. The Royals have been more like court jesters than kings this season as they rank 27th vs. LHP and over the past 12 games, have a .099 ISO, worst in the majors. No one on this team is hitting above .257 for the season besides Andrew Benintendi and they could not even get one run across the plate in last night’s 7-0 loss to the Jays. In the other dugout, we have a band of hot hitters. Over the past 12 games the Blue Jays lead the majors with a .926 OPS and a .164 wRC+. The next best team has a .132 wRC+, a significant difference. The Royals will do their best to slow down the Jays by throwing Brady Singer and his 24% K rate, best on the team, but I think Toronto takes this one easily.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-154) at FanDuel Sportsbook
For today’s two-bagger I’m going with a bet at plus odds. Typically the odds for the double are not this good but I feel so strongly about this one that it’s double-level. The game total for the Marlins vs Nationals is only 7 and we have two good pitchers on the mound with Sandy Alcantara and Josiah Gray. I’m going with a strikeout prop, but not who you’d think. Grey has a 33% K rate vs this Marlins lineup and although he’s given up 7 ER in 11.2 innings, Gray has recored 17 strikeouts against Miami in two starts. Miguel Rojas is the only Marlin with a K rate below 24%, at 9.7%. The Marlins will be swinging the bat tonight after putting up 12 runs yesterday, but they will have a more difficult time making contact against Gray’s 13% SwSt rate.
Pick: Josiah Gray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
When the Reds are at home they have a 119 wRC+, vs. on the road where they provide a dismal wRC+ of 62. Today they are at home vs. Merrill Kelly and the 4.55 xFIP of the Arizona bullpen (worst in the majors). Cincinnati has tightened up their swings and over the past 12 games has a mere 18% K rate with a 132 wRC+, second best in the majors behind the above mentioned Blue Jays. Who’s leading the way for the Reds? Kyle Farmer! During this span, Farmer is hitting .421 with a .541 wOBA and leads the majors with 15 RBI! The game total is set to 9 runs and I think Farmer contributes to that total by getting on base. Remember, I’m betting on him producing hits, as BB, HBP, and FC don’t count toward the total bases number.
Pick: Kyle Farmer to Record 2+ Total Bases (+125) at FanDuel Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 3-for-9 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll afloat. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard.
Bomb squad leader of the day is Evan Longoria! Longoria has 5 HR in his last 34 at-bats, second behind Marcus Semien and Austin Riley who have 6. Tonight the Giants play at home vs Antonio Senzatela who they have a team batting average of .397 against. Senzatela is more of a ground ball pitcher but Longoria is 3-for-10 with a HR in his career against him. Longoria has a 71% fly ball rate and leads the majors with a .471 ISO over the past two weeks. The Giants have a 5.5 implied run total tonight, second highest to the Braves 5.6. We should see some runs scored and I trust Longoria with some pretty good odds.
Pick: Evan Longoria to hit a HR (+610) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight, and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 17-16-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $1000.68
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)