Best Bets of the Day: June 29

Nathan Hursh highlights his best bets of the day.

Angels at Yankees Run Line

 

The Yankees have lost four straight contests. With a record of 40-38, they currently sit fourth in the AL East. T0night against the Angels, Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.18 ERA) gets the start. Although his ERA is not great, Taillon has been solid over his last two starts. In those games, he only allowed three earned runs in 11 innings. The sample size is small, yes, but two starts is about the time that foreign substances were cracked down on.  For the Angels, Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.72 ERA) takes the mound. In his past two starts, the lefty has struggled, allowing eight earned runs over 11 innings.

For tonight’s contest, I would say the Yankees have a slight upper hand when it comes to the pitching matchup. I get that they have lost f0ur straight and things have just seemed off all season. Tonight though, this team will snap out of it for a win by at least two runs. Let’s also not forget that the Angels are not a great road team (17-21).

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+125)

 

Cubs O/U 2.5 Runs

 

In tonight’s game between the Brewers and Cubs, Chicago will have their hands full as they face Brandon Woodruff (6-3, 1.89 ERA). There is no other way to say it, Woodruff has been pure filth this season. Among all pitchers in MLB, Woodruff currently ranks 11th in fWAR at 2.5. In three April starts against the Cubs, he pitched 19 total innings while allowing just one earned run. Having said that, Woodruff has been a bit more hittable in June. His ERA this month is 3.75 in four starts. In the first two months of the season, his ERA was closer to one than two.

As I’ve said before, I believe a 2.5 over/under run total is absurdly low for a nine-inning game. Yes, the Cubs have not won a game since their no-hitter Friday night. And yes, they’ve scored just nine total runs amid their current four-game losing streak. I know that Woodruff dominated them early this season. But three runs? The Cubs will scratch together three runs.

 

Rockies vs Pirates O/U 11

 

Yesterday, the Pirates were shut out by the Rockies at Coors Field for the fifth time ever in over 100 games. In that game, Pittsburgh could not touch Kyle Freeland (1-2, 6.54 ERA), who had an ERA of above seven before the start. Tonight, the Pirates will face German Marquez (6-6, 3.99 ERA). In his last two starts, Marquez has been dominant allowing just one earned run over 14 innings pitched. For as terrible as Colorado has been on the road (6-31), they have been solid at home (26-16). Tonight, I believe the Pirates will have trouble scoring.

As long as Chase De Jong (0-2, 4.94 ERA) can hold his own for the Pirates, I believe this under will hit. In a start against the Rockies last month, De Jong was solid as he pitched five innings of one-run ball. Although Coors Field is a hitters paradise, I just don’t think these two offenses are good. 11 runs for an over/under seems way too high for this matchup.

Pick: Under 11 runs (-117, DK)

 

Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (26-42-1)

Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$1,722.40

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nathan Hursh

Nathan Hursh has been a baseball fan for as long as he can remember. He grew up in Pittsburgh and loves the Pirates. Don't hold that against him though, he has suffered enough because of it. Find Nathan on Twitter and Instagram at Nathan_Hursh.

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