Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate. It’s time to swing the bat.
Last week Seattle exploded for 9 runs and the game went over 7.5. I was right about one pitching side but not the other. Ryan Mountcastle hit another double and cleared the double bet, while the Pirates and Cubs smashed the over by scoring a combined 19 runs. Unfortunately, the Pirates didn’t win so the parlay failed. Finally, Daniel Vogelbach looked like he didn’t want to play after he struck out looking in his first at bat. He didn’t homer in the game and I went 1-for-3 on my bets. The Bankroll has slowly trickled down but I’m going to do my best here to kickstart us back in the right direction.
Single
Over the last 12 games, the New York Mets have scored 49 runs which ranks 22nd, while Houston leads the majors with a .231 ISO. In their three meetings this season, the Astros have outscored the Mets 22-6. Justin Verlander is on the hill for the Stros and he’s been dominant with a 2.22 ERA with opponents hitting under the Mendoza line against him at .192. His opponent Taijuan Walker has been great but his underlying metrics say he’s due for some regression. Walker’s xFIP at home vs lefties is two points higher than against righties. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker both homered last night and they should give Walker some trouble tonight. Houston goes up early and allows Verlander to cruise into a quality start and the W.
Pick: Houston Astros Money Line (-124) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Double
The Minnesota Twins have scored 39 runs in the past week which leads the majors. Last night, Jorge Polanco made a big return from his 10-day stint on the IL by going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI leading the Twins to a 6-0 victory over the Guardians. The pitchers on the mound tonight both have an xFIP above 4.28 on the season and have given up an identical 32 ER. Dylan Bundy has pitched great in his last two starts but has significant home/road splits. At home Bundy has a 2.10 ERA with a 19% hard contact rate while on the road he has an ERA of 6.82 with a 40% hard contact rate. Cal Quantrill is pitching for the Guardians and he’s no better than Bundy. Quantrill does not get many whiffs as he’s in the bottom 20% in the majors in K%, SwSt%, and CSW%. For the Guardians, Steven Kwan and Andrés Giménez are both hitting above .400 during the last six games and should be on base again tonight for José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes to knock them in. This game scores a lot of runs tonight.
Pick: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians Over 8.5 runs (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Triple
Over his last 28 plate appearance Jose Altuve has 2 doubles, 3 HR, and a 47.4% hard contact rate which leads the Astros. In his career vs Taijuan Walker he’s hitting .329 with 3 doubles and a HR. Walker’s K rate is only 18% and his hard contact rate is 31.8%. Altuve is averaging 2.05 bases per game this season. The Astros have scored 22 runs in their last three games vs the Mets and I think they get to Walker with Jose starting the party. I’ll take the plus odds here.
Pick: Jose Altuve to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Home Run
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. So who’s leaving the yard tonight? Well, probably lots of guys but I’m going to tell you who has the best odds to really build your bankroll. This player has a 50% fly ball rate and a 53.6% hard contact rate over his last 37 plate appearances. In the last week he has seven hard hit balls with exit velocities over 104 MPH. In 72 plate appearances he has no home runs, tonight that changes. At +700 odds Alex Kirilloff will hit his first home run in 2022!
Pick: Alex Kirilloff to hit a HR (+700) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight, and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 20-24-0
Singles: 5-6
Doubles: 8-3
Triples: 4-7
HR: 3-8
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $495.64
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)