Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate. It’s time to swing the bat.
Last week Toronto won the game but it took 10 innings and they didn’t cover, only winning by one run. Santiago Espinal continued his hot streak with two hits, hitting the 2+ total bases bet. The Braves scored 8 runs and Dansby Swanson went 2-for-4 but failed to record an RBI. We went 1-for-4 but all bets I’d make again. It’s been a tough few weeks but thanks for sticking with me here as we are still up on the season. On to tonight!
Seattle put up 8 runs last night in Oakland and hit multiple home runs. Tonight they are back at the Colosseum vs the Mariners in what I believe will be a pitchers duel. Over the past two weeks Seattle and Oakland are 30th and 28th in runs scored and batting average. Paul Blackburn has only given up 1 ER over his last 13 innings and has a 2.26 ERA on the season. George Kirby has a 25.6% K rate and a 3.03 xFIP over his last 28 innings. Paul Blackburn is a much better pitcher than James Kaprielian. Where am I going with this? Like the late great Crocodile Dundee I’m going down under! I think the pitching prevails in this one and I’m taking the under on the game total.
Pick: Seattle @ Oakland Under 7.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Orioles tend to surprise us on occasion with their offense and pitching. What has not surprised me this season is the emergence of Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle is hitting .269 with 12 HR and 30 RBI and over his last 27 plate appearance he’s hitting .385 with 3 doubles and 3 home runs. Against LHP, Mountcastle has a 118 wRC+ and tonight he gets to face Patrick Corbin who has been pretty bad this season. Corbin has an 8% BB rate while opponents are hitting .319 against him on the season. Mountcastle is primed to take full advantage Corbin’s 38% hard contact rate.
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle to Record 2+ Total Bases (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
We almost saw Oneil Cruz leg out a triple in his long awaited season debut on Monday. Unfortunately, he got thrown out at third after clearing the bases but what that did was spark the Pirates. The entire team hit that day and they did again last, night scoring 7 more runs against the Cubs. The Pirates have scored 19 runs in the last two days and tonight are primed for more against Keegan Thompson. Over his last three starts, Thompson has an ERA over 9 while his 9% BB rate on the season isn’t helping. The Pirates are going to score tonight and the Cubs might too! Jared Eickhoff’s contract was just purchased by the Pirates and he’ll likely start tonight. He has not pitched in the majors yet this season and has never been great with a career ERA of 4.35. The Cubs and Pirates score tonight with Pittsburgh coming out on top.
Pick: Money Line / Run Parlay – Pirates / Over 9.5 runs (+290) at FanDuel Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 3-for-10 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll afloat. A .300 averaging in baseball is pretty good, right? How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard.
Bomb squad leader of the day is Daniel Vogelbach! The big man is swinging a big stick lately. DV is 4-for-6 in the series with 2 doubles. Keegan Thompson has a 38% fly ball rate on the season and it’s up to 55% over his last 9 innings. I’m putting all my money on the Pirates tonight, and it could be the last time this season but they have all the momentum going for them.
Pick: Daniel Vogelbach to hit a HR (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight, and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 19-21-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $708.68
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)