Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate. It’s time to swing the bat.
Last week, Yusei Kikuchi lost command of the ball and walked four batters to put the Blue Jays in the early hole. The Reds got shutout 0-7 when Kyle Farmer failed to get a hit, and Evan Longoria had the night off. We went 1-for-3 on bets but we are still up on the season so let’s continue to build that bankroll! Ready to win some money? Let’s go!
The Toronto Blue Jays (36-25) have a +43 run differential on the season and are coming off a loss to tonight’s opponent, Baltimore. The Orioles (27-36) have Bruce Zimmermann throwing and he has not been very good. In 62 innings, Zimmerman has given up 15 HR, a .306 batting average, and a .389 wOBA, all worst on the slate. For the Jays, the guys they signed to be their ace, José Berríos, is starting to act like it with a 32.7% K rate and a 2.51 xFIP in his last 15 innings. Seven of the Jays starters have a wOBA above .341 vs LHP on the season and over the past two weeks, the entire Blue Jays starting lineup has a wRC+ above 149. The Jays burned us last week but this matchup is too good pass up. Flying high with the blue birds again today!
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 (-150) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Another plus odds bet for the today’s double. Speaking of doubles, Santiago Espinal has five of them vs LHP this season which leads the team. He also leads the team with a 189 wRC+ vs LHP. Over the past two weeks he’s batting .380 with 13 RBI, tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the team lead. This guy is crushing LHP and the Jays have a 6.2 implied run total tonight. Espinal’s 16.8% K rate isn’t bad which means he puts the ball in play a lot. What’s even better? Bruce Zimmermann has a tiny 4.2% BB rate, second best on the slate. This means he throws strikes and will give plenty of opportunities for Santiago to hit his way to these two total bases.
Pick: Santiago Espinal to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Braves have a 13-game winning streak coming into tonight have all their pieces clicking at the same time. Ronald Acuña Jr. is back and healthy in the lead-0ff spot, Adam Duvall and Marcell Ozuna are finally hitting for power, and Dansby Swanson quietly leads the team with 36 RBI on the season. Over his last 12 games, Swanson is hitting .380 with 12 RBI. The Braves are hitting .494 with 7 HR in 80 at-bats vs tonight’s pitcher for the Nationals, Erick Fedde. Fedde is 0-4 with a 10.80 ERA in 8 games vs the Braves in his career. The Braves have a 5.6 implied run total tonight, a nice juicy number for some offense.
Pick: Dansby Swanson to Record an RBI (+140) at FanDuel Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 3-for-9 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll afloat. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard. Two weeks in a row the player I’ve selected for the homer didn’t crack the starting lineup. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again tonight.
Bomb squad leader of the day is Adam Duvall! Over his last six games, Duvall has a 4 HR with a .542 ISO and a 50% hard contact rate. Duvall is 7-for-15 with 2 HR in his career vs Erick Fedde. Fedde has given up 7 HR runs in 52 innings on the season and has a 11.7 FB/HR rate. Baseball Savant ranks Nationals Park 11th in the majors for home runs hit between 2020-2022.
Pick: Adam Duvall to hit a HR (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight, and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 18-18-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $908.68
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)