Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate. It’s time to swing the bat.
Last week was a weird one. The Dodgers lost to the Nationals 1-0, likely because Mookie Betts didn’t end up playing. So we got unlucky and refunded not once, but twice as Colin Moran didn’t break the starting lineup either. Joey Votto hit the only homer for the Reds while Glenn Otto pitched the game of his life, leading the Rangers to victory over the Angels. Overall, we went 0-2 with two DNP-refunds. We are still up big on the season so let’s make June another profitable month! Ready to win some money? Let’s go!
The New York Yankees (35-15) have the best record in baseball and look to put another beatdown on the Los Angeles Angels (27-23). After scoring nine runs last night, the Yankees come into this game as heavy favorites with Nasty Nestor Cortes on the mound. Reid Detmers is on the hill for the Angels and besides his no-hitter a few weeks back, he has not been good. A mere 17% K rate and a 32% hard contact rate has got him into trouble a lot. The Yankees have a 115 wRC+ and a .202 ISO vs LHP, both top-10 in the majors. The Angels have lost six straight, and seven of their last ten games. Angels’ opponents have scored six or more runs five times in the past six games. Cortes has been lights out, and I don’t think the Angels can match the Yankees run total tonight.
Pick: New York Yankees Money Line (-165) at DraftKings Sportsbook
For today’s two-bagger I’m going with a bet at plus odds. Typically the odds for the double are not this good but I feel so strongly about this one that it’s double-level. These odds are only +100 on DraftKings so we are getting a steal here on FanDuel. The play? Andrew Vaughn! Over his last 24 plate appearances he has a .398 wOBA with a 35% hard contact rate. The White Sox are finally coming alive and Vaughn is a big part of that, batting second in the lineup while Eloy Jiménez and Tim Anderson are out. Today the Sox get Hyun Jin Ryu who has only given up 3 ER combined in his last three starts. So why pick on him? Ryu has a 4% BB rate, really good, but a 37% hard contact rate, really bad. This bodes well for many balls in play. On the season Vaughn is hitting .308 with a 141 wRC+ vs LHP. He went 4-for-5 yesterday with a double and a home run. I’m going to ride this hot streak in a good matchup.
Pick: Andrew Vaughn to record 2+ bases (+115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
I have not suggested many pitching props this season but today I’m going with a strikeout prop that might sound a little strange. I’m taking the under on strikeouts against the Pirates. The Pirates have a 24% K rate on the season which is the third highest in the majors but they have been resilient vs a superior team the past few games. Mitch White is on the hill for the Dodgers and he does not miss many bats. A 27% CSW and a 9% SwSt are both below league average and in his most recent game against Arizona, where he pitched a season high 4 innings, he only had two strikeouts. He throws his four-seamer 50% of the time and only has a 5% SwSt on that — not good. The Pirates have scored 11 runs in the past two days against great pitchers, Julio Urías and Walker Buehler, I think they will be ok today vs White. White’s season high for strikeouts is three. Take the under at plus odds.
Pick: Mitch White Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 3-for-8 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll flourishing. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard.
Bomb squad leader of the day is Rafael Devers! Hunter Greene has a 37.7% hard contact rate — not good. He has served up 15 dingers on the season, second most in the majors. In his last outing he gave up three homers to the Chicago Cubs. The Sox got shutout yesterday 1-0 in Fenway and I think they bounce back after an off-day. This is the second time this season Devers has been the Home Run call and he’s got a great shot to hit one again. He leads the Red Sox with 10 HR vs RHP and has a 48% hard contact rate over the past two weeks. He loves hitting vs hard throwing pitchers and Green brings the heat at 98+ MPH. The Sox get back on track today and Devers supplies the power.
Pick: Rafael Devers to hit a HR (+315) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight, and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 17-12-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $1300.68
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)