Well, my picks continue to meander around mediocrity. I picked a J.A. Happ strikeout over last week, who does that? I apologize, that was a little bit ridiculous. My record is now 22-25-1 (-1.8u) and I can just feel a hot streak coming on. I’m right there!
Freddy Peralta O/U 6.5 K
The Brewers have not been shy about publicizing their plans to limit Peralta’s workload. They skipped his turn in the rotation immediately following the All-Star Break and he has thrown just 119 pitches in two starts since (51 then 68). There is a chance that jump indicates he is being built back up following nearly two weeks of inactivity, but I believe it was just due to the fact his Brewers were up by seven runs against these very same Pirates.
I do not expect him to reach seven strikeouts with an expected 70-pitch limit, especially since the Pirates strike out at the third-lowest rate in all of baseball, trailing only the Astros and Blue Jays.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 K (-110 DraftKings)
Matt Harvey O/U 3.5 K
Harvey has been on a good little run lately with one walk over his last three starts 18.1 consecutive scoreless innings to boot. He has increased the usage of both his changeup and curveball over this stretch while throwing fewer sinkers. A worthwhile strategy no doubt, I feel like Harvey’s good times are coming to an end. Two of these three starts came in Detroit and Kansas City while the other came at home against Washington.
The Yankees, while they do strike out A LOT, should be able to jump all over Harvey at home.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 K (+105 DK)
Nationals vs Phillies Run Line
This one is pretty easy: the Nationals are awful and the Phillies are playing good baseball. Pitching can often dictate lopsided matchups like this one, but neither Paolo Espino nor Chase Anderson move the needle for me. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Jean Segura are each scorching hot and should tip the scales in Philly’s favor.
Pick: PHILLIES (-105 DK, -102 FanDuel)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)