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As of this writing, it’s unclear if any MLB teams will choose to sit out Friday in protest against police brutality. There are far more important issues to address than moneylines and over/unders, but here are some bets to consider from the day’s current schedule.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9 (-115/-106 DK, -106/-114 FD)
Interestingly enough, DraftKings and FanDuel have nearly identical odds reversed for this contest’s over/under line. The case for the over boils down to a simple mistrust of Derek Holland, who has ceded 16 runs in just 23.1 innings. You’re typically not having a great season when you allow five homers on the same day. Then again, the lefty just held the Brewers to one run last Saturday. But oh yeah, the Pirates still enjoyed an offensive explosion in a 12-5 victory.
The case for the under? Neither offense is any good right now. The Brewers and Pirates rank 28th and 29th in wRC+ at 77 and 67, respectively. At 4.0 runs per game, the Buccos actually have the Brew Crew (3.7) beat. Despite Holland’s deficiencies and last Saturday’s final score, it’s a high line considering each NL Central club’s hitting woes. Plus, Corbin Burnes is hitting his stride with a 3.42 ERA and 33.0% strikeout rate this season. Although it’s far from a foolproof wager, take the under on DraftKings.
Pick: Under
Player to Hit a Home Run: Justin Turner (+540/-910 DK)
Justin Turner is off to a slow start in the power department, mustering just two home runs with a .133 ISO. He has just one extra-base hit (a double) in his last dozen games. Yet nothing looks too out of sorts with his quality of contact, so let’s put a small token on a high-reward payout. Since the start of 2017, the third baseman is slugging .596 against southpaws. Righties are currently slugging .523 against Mike Minor, who has served up six homers to them in as many starts. If the Mariners can take him deep three times, Minor could be in store for major trouble against Turner and the Dodgers.
Pick: Yes
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U (-120/-103 DK, -120/-102 FD)
DraftKings and FanDuel are in agreement here, forecasting the over as the more likely outcome. My first thought was to concur. While Tyler Anderson just thwarted the Diamondbacks to one run in a complete game gem, his 4.72 FIP and 5.54 SIERA forebode major regression. The Giants also may not be the cupcake matchup one might think. Continuing to exceed expectations, they rank sixth in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
It’s nevertheless wise to lean toward the under. Arizona’s rough day against Anderson was not an isolated incident; only Cleveland has a worse wRC+ against lefties. To that end, Fade The Noise’s Stack Targets doesn’t give the Diamondbacks much of an edge based on batted-ball data. The Giants, on the other hand, have excelled against southpaws (121 wRC+) while producing below-average results (96 wRC+) versus righties. They face an awfully tough one in Zac Gallen, who has yet to yield more than three runs in any of his 21 career major-league starts. A San Francisco upset feels a bit too daring, but this contest should avoid a crooked run tally on either end.
Pick: Under
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros: Moneyline (+105/-124 DK, +102/-116 FD)
Earlier in the season, I recommended the Astros over the Athletics simply because they were the Astros. Weeks ago, it felt too weird seeing the AL West powerhouse as even a slight underdog. Now, it’s strange them favored over the superior A’s.
Oakland holds a 4.5-game division lead with an AL-best 22-10 record. Their plus-41 run differential matches the White Sox for second in the majors behind the Dodgers.
It’s not like Houston has a clear pitching advantage. Still yet to recover from an eight-run shellacking against Arizona, Lance McCullers Jr. holds an unsightly 5.74 ERA in six starts. Perhaps even more concerning, his 18.5% strikeout rate is 7.6 percent below his career norm. Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, sports a 2.97 ERA with a steady 3.63 FIP. Although known more as a pitch-to-contact worker, the 31-year-old even possesses a higher strikeout rate (20.1%) than his Friday opponent. An Astros lineup without Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez is not nearly as imposing as the ones they’ve trotted out in recent years, especially while George Springer and José Altuve continue to flounder.
In any other year, it’d be understandable for home-field advantage to sway a close call between two contenders. While the Astros have gone 12-5 at the crowdless Minute Maid Park, they also got swept at Oakland in early August. Bet on the better team at favorable odds.
Pick: Athletics
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)