Best Baseball Bets to Make on August 1

Rich Holman highlights Saturday's best bets.

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Braves vs. Mets Over
(10.5 -105 FD, 10.5 -105 DK)

 

After the fireworks from last night, I’m heading right back to Atlanta for more. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has an estimated total on this game of 11.9 runs. The Mets and Braves put on a show, putting up 21 runs Friday night en route to an 11-10 Braves victory. Tonight we get a matchup of Michael Wacha against Touki Toussaint. While Toussaint has some nasty stuff, he struggled in his first outing, allowing six earned runs in 2.2 IP, while striking out six batters. When we look at BvP for Wacha, the Braves active roster has a combined .345/.430/.476 slash line. While I understand that’s a small sample, I do like to think it means the Braves hitters see the ball well against Wacha. Finally, what I like the most about this game is the weather. On the day, it’s the best hitting weather with temperatures in the 90s and is being played in a hitters ballpark. Let the fireworks continue!

Pick: Over 10.5 (-105 FD or DK)

 

Reds at Tigers To Lead After 5 Innings (-160 FD, -143 DK)

 

Maybe I’m a fool, but I keep going back to the well with the Reds against the Tigers. This will be the fifth game they play against each other and despite the Reds throwing Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo twice, and Trevor Bauer, they’re just 1-3. Most of the issue has been the bullpen. Reds relievers on the year have thrown 25.1 innings and posted a 7.46 ERA, which is backed up by the 6.53 FIP.

On the Tigers side, Michael Fulmer takes the mound. Last time out, Fulmer struggled, allowing four runs to the Royals over 2.1 IP. Fulmer will be on a tight pitch count, so the Reds will get the Tigers meh bullpen for the majority of the game. However, with the Reds bullpen struggling so much, I don’t wanna bet on the Reds after the fifth inning. So let’s take the Reds to lead after five innings. Check back on FTN’s Lineup Page to check the lineups before this game starts.

Pick: Reds (-143 DK)

 

Trevor Bauer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-144 FD)

 

Despite Luis Castillo allowing five ERs to the Tigers on Friday (What???), he still managed to show that the Tigers are a team to pick on when it comes to strikeouts. Castillo struck out six Tigers, who have struck out at a league-high 32.5% rate against right-handed pitching. Today’s starter, Trevor Bauer, certainly added to that as he faced the Tigers in his first start, striking out 13 batters over 6.1 IP. Bauer threw 105 pitches in that start, so he’s fully stretched out. While I’m not calling for a repeat 13 strikeout performance, Bauer should cash on this bet. This prop isn’t currently available on DraftKings, but keep an eye on it to see if there’s better pricing. On the other side of this matchup, I like the under on Michael Fulmer strikeouts at 3.5 (-144 FD).

Pick: Over (-144 FD)

 

Cleveland Indians Team Total
Under (4 -108 FD, 4.5 -134 DK)

 

Kenta Maeda has been a master of inducing weak contact. For context, in 2019 his average exit velocity of 86.1 mph ranked 351st out of 362 pitchers (think of it like golf, the lower the exit velo allowed by a pitcher, the better). In his first start of the season, Maeda went five innings, allowing two earned runs while striking out five White Sox. The lone mistake was a changeup that Maeda left up in the zone to rookie Luis Robert. Maeda threw 84 pitches in his first start, so he should be able to go around 95 pitches today. After Maeda, the Indians will get the solid Twins bullpen who has posted a 3.41 ERA in the early going, which ranks 10th in baseball. However, the high-leverage guys — Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, and Trevor May — have gone a combined seven innings while allowing just one earned run.

The Indians have struggled in the early going against right-handed batters, posting a 78 wRC+, which places them 24th in the league. Sluggers Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez will get their first career at-bats against Maeda today. The forecasted temperatures in the middle of the country are also a reason I’m playing the under in this game. At first pitch, it’s projected to be in the mid-70s, which is much cooler than on the east coast.

Pick: Under 4.5 (-134 DK)

 

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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