Bachelor Paddack

What a ride it’s been owning Chris Paddack this season as he pitched his final game of the year last night, spinning five brilliant innings via 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks and hitting 140.2 frames. Goodnight, sweet prince you whisper as he becomes a free man on your waiver wire. Where should Paddack go in drafts next year? We’ll be talking about it plenty over the winter as he carried a 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 27% K rate with a decent 3.84 SIERA. I get the feeling that he’ll be lumped into the SP #2 ranks around #25 or so, and I’m totally cool with that price … but he’ll likely go somewhere between 15-20 and I’ll be out. I don’t like the natural volatility of a split-changeup as your No. 2 pitch, and his success will hinge on the development of his curveball to return the top 70 overall pick I expect him to cost. Not to mention the ceiling is likely 180 frames, not 200 like others around the same price. Just a thought.

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

Patrick Corbin6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace as we’re going to keep restarting our PC. Just a cool 22 whiffs for a Gallows Pole, nothing to see here.

Marco Gonzales7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. See everyone else with good matchups who faltered? This is how it’s done. And now he gets the Orioles on Sunday for a lovely two-start week that I’m all for. You gots this.

Luis Severino4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Well this was cool. We didn’t get five innings but saw Severino go high 90s and get into the groove as the man we drafted. Funny enough, he was throwing softer in the third and Boone wanted to pull him, so he pushed 97-98 in the fourth to prove him wrong. Good stuff bud. Start him without fear.

Marcus Stroman7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Hot dang! Of all games for Stroman to finally put up a sub 1.00 on the Mets, it’s inside Coors. BASEBALL IS WEIRD. If you had the brass to start Stroman here, power to you, I’m still in shock this worked. His cutter did everything for him – 15/42 CSW with 29 strikes – and you’ve also been rewarded with a start against Miami next. Here’s to hoping for more of the same.

Justin Verlander6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace. As much as I love Cole’s strikeout rate, the extra innings + stupid good WHIP + currently slightly lower ERA is going to give Verlander the Cy Young. Suddenly, a mysterious shadow with the face of Rick Porcello appears in the shadows. NOT TODAY, THIEF.

Brandon Woodruff2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. We didn’t expect much from Woodruff given he didn’t have a rehab start, but this is as good as you could have hoped. Just 10 games left, and I don’t think we’ll see enough Woodruff to get to the point of seeing him for a full five frames.

Blake Snell2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Yeah, samesies with Snell. 

Brett Anderson5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Anderson had a lovely matchup against the Royals and took full advantage. Nice work, now you get the Angels and I’m in for another ride.

Caleb Ferguson1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Ah yes, Dodgeritis in full form. Four pitchers showed up in this game who I’d be all over if they started every five days proper – Ferguson, Julio Urias, Ross Stripling, and Kenta Maeda. Endure, Master Wayne. Endure.

Alex Young5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. We were all targeting this start from Young against the Marlins and it worked, just not as smooth as we envisioned. That’s fine, keep letting him fly.

Sonny Gray6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace. We’re starting Gray blindly these days, and all he’s done is reward us. A fantasy MVP for many who went with him, I remember the debates of Weaver vs. Gray at the beginning of the year as well, and while Luke Weaver‘s ascension was cut short due to injury, I doubt it would have been what Sonny has done for owners. I’m hesitant to reach for Sonny next season if he costs a top 100 pick, but let’s enjoy this moment.

Mitch Keller5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Oddly enough, in a productive outing I don’t think Keller pitched all that great. Just six whiffs in total (21/95 CSW) as his breakers weren’t as sharp as we’ve seen and he relied a bit too heavily on fastballs to get the job done. But hey, it worked against the Mariners. Streaming Record: 97-64. Now it’s the Cubs, and I think I’m in for one last spin.

Jorge Lopez6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Enjoy the Birthday PartyJorLo, I heard the cake was amazing.

Adam Plutko6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Plutko got the Tigers and did exactly what we wanted him to do. Now he gets the Phillies, and I imagine some want to jump on for another spin. I’d be careful – his stuff ain’t great and the Phillies could feast.

Trent Thornton – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. That’s another stellar five frame performance from Double-Tee as a False Starter and I’m a little intrigued. Not that I’d risk it against the Yankees this weekend, but hey, for a super desperate play on Sunday, you could do worse.

Vince Velasquez5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Welcome to the ceiling of VV. He’s a Werewolf where this shows up about once a month, so don’t go telling your friends about it. You’ll just look silly when he looks like a normal joe next time out.

Miles Mikolas6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I think we’ll all take a VPQS from Mikolas these days, especially if you took the gamble against the Nationals. Now it’s the Cubs, and I’m OK with that.

Martin Perez4.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Ugh, come on Perez. You had the ChiSox. This is supposed to be easy. I’m still tossing him out there for the Royals next, but seriously man, we needed this one.

Chandler Shepherd4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Bundy was pushed back to today and Shepherd stepped in to no ovation. And then left … to no ovation. Poor guy. As Cup of Schmo as it gets with a 92/93 heater a decent slider and nothing else.

Logan Webb5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. I get the feeling Logan just spreads his arms and allows all the offense to hit him, stretched out as far as possible to take in as much as he can. He is the world wide Webb. Get out. Already out of my seat.

Yu Darvish7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks. Aces Gonna Ace. Yes he gets that with 4 ER, the man fanned eight in a row and gave you 13 Ks and a 1.00 WHIP. BE HAPPY.

Lance Lynn7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. He got the Astros, so fine, that ERA hit is a little expected, but a solid WHIP and 8 Ks are fine with me. Keep starting Lynn through the end.

Tim Melville5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Nope, this wasn’t the start we’re targeting for Melville, it’s the next one where he heads to San Francisco. It’s too bad it’s against Bumgarner, but I do wonder if that will be a super sneaky start that puts some over the edge next week. Not the worst stream, y’all.

Zac Reininger2.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. With Matty Boyd having to skip this start because of a family matter, Urkel Reininger stepped in last minute and was promptly hung out to dry. What a guy, that Zac.

Caleb Smith5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I get the feeling y’all can see me roll my eyes. It’s coin-flip city and it didn’t work against the Diamondbacks. Do you need strikeouts to start your next week? If so, it’s the Mets next week followed by a date with the Phils to close the year (if he gets that start). We’ll see, and we’ll talk about 2020 plenty over the winter. It all comes down to price, but I’d be interested to buy back in again if it doesn’t cost a whole lot.

Nathan Eovaldi4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I was tempted to lead with Eovaldi and call it “Not Nate, Bob!” as I’m so frustrated with this start. If you told me Eovaldi would get 85+ pitches against the Giants, I’d be expecting a lovely day at the park. This ain’t that. At all. He was a two-start SP I targeted and now getting a date with Rays is incredibly shaky. I’m not a fan there, and I’d look at other options.

Ross Detwiler5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. A rolling team carries no Ross. He had to step in for Lucas Giolito’s season-ending lat injury, FWIW.

Dallas Keuchel5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Uggggh, Keuchel we need you now! Stop acting like the Toby you are and give us legit production. Please, I’m still starting you against the Giants because duh, just be better there, OK?

Jose Suarez – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He was opened for and like the googles, IT DID NAAATHING. I mean, this was the Yankees. Of course not.

 

Today’s Streamer

 

For those unaware, I’m forced to make my streamer picks under the condition of sub-20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.

 

Justin Dunn vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – OK, this day is terrible for streaming. I should probably go Danny Duffy against the A’s – still hate that but it’s a decent QS chance – but I’m going to be bold today. Dunn is a solid arm who had to deal with the jitters in his MLB debut. That’s behind him now, facing a blegh offense sans Josh Bell. I could see him get through the first with ease, then dominate with confidence through 5+. Figured I’d give him the spotlight for people that have no idea who to stream on Wednesday. Dunn is going to be used as an opener, and another challenger has entered the ring: Tyler Mahle vs. Chicago Cubs – With a weakened Cubs lineup ahead, I’d take the chance with Mahle over chasing a quality start with Duffy. If Homer Bailey is out there, by all means go there, same with Sandy Alcantarabut for the most part, Mahle is the available one.

 

Tomorrow’s Streamer

 

Anthony Kay vs. Baltimore Orioles – With a short slate and only five pitchers eligible as a streamer, I’ll go with Kay and his decent stuff against the Orioles. It’s a bad play. Don’t make it.

 

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

 

Austin Voth vs. Miami Marlins – I debated this one a lot between Voth and Drew Smyly against the Indians, and the bottom line was Miami vs. Cleveland. I don’t love Voth’s secondary stuff, but if his fastball is anywhere as good, this should work.

 

Game of the Day

 

Brendan McKay vs. Tony Gonsolin – You only need to watch for the first hour and change as both arms are likely to go about four frames each (if we’re lucky), but I’ll certainly enjoy the time.

(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Nick Pollack

Founder of PitcherList.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

sdf

Comments


Matthew

I don’t think Voth is starting on Friday. On ESPN it was reported that the Nats were gonna roll with a 4 man rotation until next week. Do you feel Snell is a good keep for a two start next week?

Nick Pollack

If that’s the case, then it’s Smyly for the streaming pick.

I’d look for other options to fill that void and you’ll be lucky to get eight frames out of those two starts from Snell.

Leave a Comment


Your email address will not be published.