Dallas Keuchel
Houston Astros

Fastball

51.1% Thrown  88.6 MPH

The biggest difference you'll see in Keuchel from his cy young year to last year's disappointment was a dramatic shift in contact rate - Keuchel's Two-Seamer held 83.5% contact rate in 2015, which jumped to a whopping 92.5% last season. That points us to his heatmap, which shows Keuchel effectively nibbling the low-and-outside corner in 2015 to a more forgiving Keuchel in 2016 as he rarely expanded the zone to induce weaker contact. Without the command, Keuchel just isn't the same.

Slider

26.3% Thrown  78.0 MPH

It looks awfully like a Curveball, but it's classified as a Slider by Pitchf/x so here we are. The pitch was by far Keuchel's best offering last season, earning a 9.2 pVal as it held a near 40% K rate and held batters to a meager .166 BAA with a 17.6% whiff rate and only 59.1% total contact.

Changeup

9.3% Thrown  79.4 MPH

Keuchel still has an effective Changeup, but elected to feature his Cutter - a worse overall pitch - more in 2016 at the cost of the slow ball. Despite its lower usage, it still held a 20%+ whiff rate for the second straight year and a positive pVal. Look for Keuchel to turn to the pitch again in 2017.

Cutter

13.3% Thrown  85.6 MPH

Keuchel enjoys jamming right-handers with his Cutter, though he let the pitch peel out over the plate a bit too much last season, reducing his pop-up rate dramatically from 42.9% to 15.8%, and allowing more than double the amount of extra-base hits.