Vote For Pedro

Nick Pollack reviews every single starting pitcher's performances from Tuesday's games.

The Rangers elected to open yesterday with Brett Martin but enough about Brett on Pine Tar day, Pedro Payano made his first career “start” and in his second game in the majors and he was…kinda amazing – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks.  30/78 CSW with 15 whiffs as his curveball went 13/24 on its own. Hot dang! I watched his full performance and Pedro pumped 93-95 in this one with a ton of lateral movement on his heater, a slider at 85+ for strikes, even a good changeup to lefties mixed in a was well. Does he deserve a pickup? Maybe, he gets the A’s next and if you feel the need to get a leg up on the rest of your leaguemates, sure, take a chance here. I’d prefer to wait to see if his fastball command can improve a bit first as he didn’t nail his spots well here – the pitch moved plenty but came with a bit of Feral Command. 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

Trevor Bauer7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. That’s 42 strikeouts across four of his last five games. Everyone is back on the Bauer train now, right?

Felix Pena – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Pena was the False Starter here and while he gave you decent strikeout production for his limited innings, it’s just not enough across a full week – even if he does get two starts, is it still worth the risk? No, no it’s not.

Stephen Strasburg6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace, though I’ve been expressing my distaste for his often random clunkers among excellent stretches. Whatever, not like you have a choice. He’s not may favorite ace out there, but the numbers should be there when all is said and done.

Jason Vargas6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. Here I was, not loving this stream and believing we were fully on the downturn of the Vargas Rule. But no, Vargas can’t handle the Marlins but kills it against the Padres. Of course. Streaming Record: 64-42. Now he hosts the Pirates and I’m rolling my eyes again. I don’t want to risk it.

Danny Duffy6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Whaaaaaaaa. Save for a poot day against the Tigers on the 12th, Duffy has cruised in four of his last five starts, bumping velocity a touch, even here hitting his season high at 93 mph. Does that mean he’s finally worth the 12-teamer pickup? Maybe he is. 38/99 CSW against the Braves is all kinds of impressive with 40% sliders returning 43% CSW. The Indians are next, why not, let’s dance Duff Man.

Aaron Nola7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I love Nola day so much, especially when there isn’t any rain whatsoever, allowing Nola’s velocity to come back up a little and regain his command. Easy-A is here to stay.

Aaron Sanchez5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Huh, Sanchez did well for a change. You Can’t Predict Baseball.

Caleb Smith7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Smith was flirting with perfection against the ChiSox. 31/93 CSW with a ton of called strikes as Chicago tried to be patient. It didn’t work. Start him with confidence.

Matt Boyd6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Phew, there we go Boyd. I had to lower you to the next tier this week after six straight games of 4+ ER (I know, I know, the HR problem had to slow down eventually though!) and you responded with 19 whiffs (Gallows Pole!) and a phantastic game against the Phils. At least we know now that’s he sure to get dealt. Please be the Astros, please be the Astros…

Dylan Bundy6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. 31/94 CSW here as his slider was great and even some changeups were good. 91 mph though and you’re going to have to do a lot more to get us back on the ride to trust you. Sorry Bundy, you’ve dug yourself quite a hole.

Yonny Chirinos5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Yonny had a bad day against the Yanks – who doesn’t? – and responded well in this one against the Red Sox. Kinda. 23/88 CSW isn’t good at all and 3/21 on his splitter is super blegh. But it’s not enough for me to fully jump off the Chirinos train. Maybe consider selling high? See what’s out there, you know?

Mike Fiers7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. The QS train continues and it’s crazy. He’s a Vargas Rule as everything points to a massive free-fall in the final months. Still, he survived Houston here and props to him for that. Keep riding it until the wall hits.

Dallas Keuchel6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks. Keuchel, you’re a Toby’s Toby, not the ghost of 2015. Seriously, Keuchel has had five other double-digit strikeout games in his career…all in 2015. Here’s the strikeout zone plot from this one – look at that mammoth cavity in the middle of the plate. Love it. 39/102 CSW, 17 whiffs (Boyd has you beat), and be happy this one worked out so well. It won’t be like this normally (nothing close, really), but it’s cool.

Wade Miley8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Miley is Houston’s Keuchel replacement and he saw the line above and gave it his best shot. Thanks buddy.

Tanner Roark5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I didn’t expect Roark to do too well here against the Brewers, but there he is earned 27% CSW with 5/102 whiffs. Yeah. The Brewers were patient with him and Roark pumped strikes for five frames. I’d stay away for the most part – I think his ceiling isn’t worth the floor – as he’s likely just a Toby. 

Chris Sale6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Yeah, everything’s cool, y’all.

Madison Bumgarner7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. It wasn’t overly dominating, but Bumgarner is still feeling his curveball and cruising through games. I’m in, y’all. It’s the best Bummy we’ve seen since 2016.

Dakota Hudson6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s essentially a VPQS with five Ks. I guess that’s okay if you’re a Hudson owner and good for him to recover from a slow start to give you production. Yes, he’s still a Toby.

Peter Lambert5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Funny story, I never talk DFS, but I felt it was wrong that Lambert was the lowest priced SP going yesterday and what does he do? Strikeout his second-most batters of the season…sure while serving blegh ratios, BUT THAT’S NOT THE POINT. There is some sneaky value here. If he finds himself somehow outside of Coors, there could be something here. Just saying.

Kenta Maeda4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Great to see the strikeouts, sad to see the return of short starts, but at least it’s Maeda’s fault, not Dodgeritis. That’s a plus? Sure! I’d hate the idea that no matter how Maeda does, he gets pulled early. Anyway, Maeda was pulled with 95 pitches (31% CSW, though) and I think everything is fine. Keep on keepin’ on.

Chris Paddack5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. Come on Paddack, I know it all fell apart in a blink of an eye in the sixth, but that said, you weren’t so dominant prior. I’d wait for a fantastic outing then sell high if you could. There’s a lot of hype that comes with Paddack, feed off it.

Chris Archer6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Yep, that’s the Archer we’ve known for years. Nothing’s changed ya’ll, the ratios will undulate and the strikeouts will be there. Plan accordingly.

Yu Darvish6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Dang, I wanted dominance from Darvish as he faced the Giants, but at least 25% breakers are back! His fastball command burned him a little here, but 35% CSW was there. Stick with Darvish.

Dylan Covey6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Whoa seven strikeouts! Oh right, the Marlins. And five ERs…so you know what that means. Don’t Covey Thy Dylan.

Kyle Gibson5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. He had a date with the Yanks and things didn’t go well. Stick with him, the ChiSox are next, y’all. Don’t let a terrible matchup ruin that.

Zach Davies4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. If I blindly saw all of the lines from yesterday’s games, this may have been the least likely one I’d have picked to be Davies’. The regression is hitting yet, so he decided to get some strikeouts all of a sudden. It’s weird, but don’t let it lull you into trusting him moving forward. These ratios are more real than the punchouts.

Tommy Milone6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeaaaah, this was a fun sneaky play for a moment, but that times has come and gone.

Merrill Kelly2.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. OH COME ON KELLY. You’re great for nine starts, so finally I give you some love and the 10th game – the one against the Orioles – is the one where you take a massive step back? Your curveball was like the second season of Firefly – NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. Your cutter was 2/11 in CSW as you relied on four-seamers. That’s not the answer Kelly, your reduction of heaters was the reason why you were doing well. Blegh. Life is dumb. Let’s watch TV.

Domingo German3.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Are you worried? I’m not, it was the Twins and he had a bad day. The skill set is still there, he’s missed enough time that he’ll fly the rest of the way, and I’d buy low if I could.

 

Today’s Streamer

 

For those unaware, I’m forced to make my Streamer picks under the condition of sub 20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.

 

Jordan Lyles vs. St. Louis Cardinals – His curveball showed up last time out and this could work again. Reynaldo Lopez vs. Miami Marlins – I didn’t realize this was the day he went. I 100% want ReyLo and his new velocity.

 

Tomorrow’s Streamer

 

Adam Plutko vs. Kansas City Royals – Not a whole lot to choose from here. Aim to stream elsewhere first.

 

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

 

Asher Wojciechowski vs. Los Angeles Angels – I could go with Jose Urquidy against the Cardinals, but I think Woj’s curveball is the best pitch here and could carry him through another fantastic day.

 

Game of the Day 

 

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Zac Gallen – Give me ReyLo’s 97mph velocity + Gallen’s further development.

 

(Photo by Icon Sportswire)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

  • Avatar Jim says:

    The Game of the Day is going to be a s*** show I’m guessing. 7-5?

  • Avatar Karl says:

    Hey Nick, thanks as usual for the great work. I’m currently throwing 2019 in my 20-team dynasty league in hopes of competing next year. I’ve added Woj, Urquidy, and now Payano as I throw pitching against the wall in hopes something will stick. Which of the three is most likely to be a useful roster piece in 2020, in your opinion?

    • Avatar theKraken says:

      20 team dynasty guy here – probably none of them I am sorry to say. I would say Urquidy and it isn’t close just scouting the stat lines. Go get some veterans in the off-season or try to get some right now at the deadline.

  • Avatar theKraken says:

    I don’t think Fiers is the “hit a wall” type. He is certainly a guy with the rare ability to put together great stretches, but I doubt he just falls apart at some point this year at least. He has the ability to throw a clunker but his composure/presence are his best assets. He reminds me of Lynn a bit in that regard that the regression won’t cancel out the good even though it will suck if you have to suffer through a few bad starts. The ratios will end up closer to average as the ugly will probably be quite bad, but the median start should be solid. If you can dodge a bad start or two, then the end result is even better. Those veterans without great stuff are the values.

  • Avatar Chelsa says:

    Hi Nick!

    Good article! Don’t covey thy Dylan! LOL! Yeah…so I’ve been following SP Roundup VERY closely all season and decided to follow your lead on sticking with Merrill Kelly vs the Orioles. That didn’t turn out so well as my ratios got massacred and my feelings got hurt. But I’ll get over it! Just hoping all goes well with Reynaldo (picked him up per your advice) vs the Marlins today! Fingers crossed!!! In fairness, I added Lynn and Minor to my squad when you said to and they’ve both been lights out, so it hasn’t all been bad. I really do hope Urquidy and Reynaldo work out going forward as well.

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