The Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2020 – MLB Delay Edition

This is a crazy time we’re living in. I’ve never made a version of The List before with so much uncertainty, but here we are, at the end of March, reading tea leaves to figure out when (or if?!) baseball will be played in 2020. Stay safe and healthy, everyone.

I’ve updated my Top 100 ranks since I made these at the start of February with most ranking shifts coming from the MLB delay, but a good handful are a product of a change of heart. Let’s get to it and make sure to check out the notes below.

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Jacob deGrom	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
4	Justin Verlander	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
5	Walker Buehler T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Shane Bieber T3	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
7	Mike Clevinger	PIT	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
8	Stephen Strasburg		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
9	Jack Flaherty T4	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
10	Patrick Corbin	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
11	Charlie Morton	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
12	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+3
13	Luis Castillo	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	+1
14	Yu Darvish	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
15	Lucas Giolito	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
16	Chris Paddack	MIA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+8
17	Blake Snell	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-6
18	Corey Kluber T5		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
19	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
20	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
21	Zack Greinke		Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	+1
22	Zac Gallen	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
23	Sonny Gray	BOS	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+8
24	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
25	James Paxton		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+36
26	Carlos Carrasco T6	ATL	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-8
27	Madison Bumgarner		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
28	Lance Lynn		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
29	Noah Syndergaard		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-1
30	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
31	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-1
32	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
33	Michael Soroka	ARI	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
34	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
35	David Price T7		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
36	Jesús Luzardo	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
37	Kenta Maeda	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
38	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+9
39	Carlos Martínez		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
40	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
41	Julio Urías T8		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+10
42	Max Fried	NYY	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-5
43	Luke Weaver	NYM	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-1
44	Andrew Heaney		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
45	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+15
46	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-8
47	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-4
48	Sean Manaea	NYM	Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused	-3
49	Dinelson Lamet		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-3
50	Robbie Ray	SF	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-2
51	Mike Foltynewicz		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
52	Mitch Keller	PIT	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-3
53	Caleb Smith		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
54	José Urquidy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
55	Jake Odorizzi		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+2
56	Mike Minor		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
57	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-7
58	Germán Márquez	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
59	Hyun Jin Ryu		Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-
60	Dylan Cease T9	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
61	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+19
62	Alex Wood		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+19
63	Garrett Richards		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
64	Masahiro Tanaka	SD	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
65	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+1
66	Adrian Houser	SF	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+3
67	Josh Lindblom		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+21
68	John Means		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+14
69	Griffin Canning	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-16
70	Dylan Bundy		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
71	Michael Kopech T10	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-4
72	A.J. Puk	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-4
73	Josh James		Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-11
74	Taijuan Walker	PHI	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
75	Joey Lucchesi	LAA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
76	Dallas Keuchel		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-3
77	Cole Hamels		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
78	Yonny Chirinos		Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-4
79	Ryan Yarbrough	NYY	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	-4
80	Marcus Stroman		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-4
81	Anthony DeSclafani		Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	-4
82	Zach Plesac T11	STL	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-4
83	Aaron Civale		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-4
84	Spencer Turnbull	KC	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
85	Wade Miley		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-
86	Justus Sheffield		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
87	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
88	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
89	Rich Hill		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
90	Chris Archer		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
91	Asher Wojciechowski		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
92	Jon Gray		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
93	Dakota Hudson	LAA	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-
94	Johnny Cueto		Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
95	Homer Bailey		Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-
96	J.A. Happ		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-
97	Jordan Lyles		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
98	Chad Kuhl		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option	+1
99	Steven Matz	TB	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+1
100	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+UR

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• Chris Sale and Tyler Beede are gone because of TJS. It makes a huge impact on the ranking numbers, so keep that in mind. Luis Severino was removed last time, so no extra (+1) there.
• …and so does James Paxton jumping into the Top 25 as he has now been given enough time to heal before the season starts.
• Blake Snell, Justin Verlander, and Mike Clevinger took a lot of energy to consider here. I’m worried Clevinger rushed back too soon from surgery, so he gets docked just one spot behind Shane Bieber, but I’ll assume he’s good to go for the limited season. Verlander got the same treatment with Scherzer, as there is still some risk that his lat injury will stick around. I am worried that Snell’s injury will flare up again during the year, though, as no surgery took place. A lot more risk there, so he drops.
• Let’s tackle the major shifters due to a shorter season: Lance McCullers’ innings are not an issue anymore. Shohei Ohtani will be healed and ready to go. Jesus Luzardo and Julio Urias jump a bit since their likely 140 IP limits will be hard to hit in a shorter season. Chris Paddack had a 180 IP limit that will not matter. Charlie Morton has less time for his likely injury, so I gave him a significant boost. Cole Hamels will be back from his injury and serve as a solid Toby like Dallas Keuchel. Lastly, I wanted to drop Griffin Canning further with his elbow injury, but the current status is he’ll be ready when we play, so I didn’t lower him too far. Still worth the lottery ticket.
• I’ve been impressed by the velocities of Jordan Montgomery, Alex Wood, and Taijuan Walker all sitting above 92 mph. The former two make for excellent late grabs to see how the season starts, while I’m down for Walker as a deeper flier.
• There was a lot of buzz about John Means improving his breaking stuff, vaulting him above the other Tobys. The same goes for Josh Lindblom, who showcased an impressive repertoire in the spring and is worth a dart throw before diving into the shrugs of arms in the bottom quarter of the ranks.
• It looks like AJ Puk and Michael Kopech will not start the season in the rotation. If you have the room, go for it as they could be impact arms, but it may be a bit frustrating, especially in a shortened season where each productive inning means more.
• I found myself favoring Mike Foltynewicz a bit more in drafts while stalling on Kyle Hendricks, resulting in a rise and fall, respectively. Folty is a sturdy option among a sea of upside takes and very close to Hendricks, with a slightly different balance of ceiling and floor.
• I’ve had a massive turnaround on Sonny Gray and I wasn’t giving him enough credit in February. The main argument against was expected regression from his slider and curveball (which still may come!), though learning that he improved the pitches when Bauer came over and introduced him to slow-motion cameras made me reconsider if I was being too harsh. In the end, he carries a similar ratio floor to Bumgarner with plenty higher strikeout ability, so I raised him to #23.
• I’m a touch worried about Carlos Carrasco’s array of health problems, so I lowered him to the mid-20s as I found myself not wanting to take his risk over other similar arms.
• There’s a lot of hype around Max Fried for this season with his excellent slider and while I really hope it does pan out, there’s a heavy amount of risk associated with taking him inside the Top 40. With better overall arms having more security entering the year, I dropped him into the early 40s.
• Josh James is still battling for a fifth spot in the Houston rotation and could easily miss out, making me hesitant to chase him in the later rounds. The same goes for Austin Voth as Joe Ross is more than likely to steal the fifth spot in Washington. Sadly, I’m not a fan of chasing him in drafts. Edit: Rich Hill was somehow removed at #89, leaving Voth on The List. Hill has been added (he should be healthy by the start of the year and provides intriguing early upside!), forcing Voth, without a spot in the rotation, off The List.
• I found myself still staying away from Eduardo Rodriguez as I don’t trust that he’ll be a steady producer throughout the year. He’s still Top 60, but there are too many serviceable arms to go after instead.
• There are rumors that Spencer Howard could start the year in the rotation and he likely deserves a spot on The List because of that. I wanted to wait until I heard more as it’s just a rumor at this point, with Kopech and Puk much more in the discussion up to now than Howard. I have no problem with anyone stashing Howard for now though as a last pick in the draft.

Photos by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@FreshmeatComm on Twitter)