What is happening!
It’s the third and final edition of the altered format of The List where I rank the Top 100 (and a little more) per usual, but pair it with each pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule as well. It’s important to understand who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.
Before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:
How do we rank strength of schedule?
I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.
I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.
So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor.
You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.
With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:
- These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but there is just so much up in the air
- I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
- The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
- And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with five starts over those with four. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
- I did not include games played today, Monday 9/10, as I imagine most of you will be reading this after most of today’s games.
- I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
[table id=56 /]
The holy Angels trinity of Heaney, Barria and Pena have a very brutal schedule during the playoffs. Too bad I am already heavily invested in most leagues and without many options on the Wire. SEA, @OAK, @HOU, oh my!
Thanks so much Nick!!! So helpful as I’m on the doorstep of the championship in both my leagues, in no small part because of this site. Thank you thank you.
Hey Nick, so what combination of wOBA did you end up going with? Mostly full season but slightly skewed towards more recent data samples?
I think I did a special blend for each team. I ultimately think blanket wOBA over a period of time doesn’t do a full job. Some I put heavier weights on recent performance, others full season, based on believability of recent success.
NYM has a top 10 wOBA, top 5 wRC+, and the most runs scored in baseball over the last 30 days. I still think they’re a middling offense at best, but I’m not streaming against them the way I would vs. SFG, BAL, MIA, etc.
Thanks for this, btw. Very helpful stuff.