The List 9/10: Ranking All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

What is happening!

It’s the third and final edition of the altered format of The List where I rank the Top 100 (and a little more) per usual, but pair it with each pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule as well. It’s important to understand who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.

Before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:

How do we rank strength of schedule?

I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.

I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.

So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor. 

Elite Offense @COL HOU OAK BOS CLE CHC
Strong Offense LAD ATL MIL SEA STL ARI NYY
Average Offense WSH TEX PIT TBR LAA CIN
Weak Offense PHI MIN TOR COL
Poor Offense SDP MIA NYM DET KCR CHW BAL SFG

You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.

With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:

  • These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but there is just so much up in the air
  • I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
  • The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
  • And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with five starts over those with four. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
  • I did not include games played today, Monday 9/10, as I imagine most of you will be reading this after most of today’s games.
  • I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.

Rank

Pitcher

1st Start

2nd Start

3rd Start

4th Start

1

Jacob Degrom

MIA

@BOS

@WSH

ATL

2

Clayton Kershaw

@STL

COL

@ARI

@SFG

3

Aaron Nola

WSH

NYM

@ATL

ATL

4

Max Scherzer

@MIA

NYM

MIA

-

5

Gerrit Cole

@DET

SEA

@TOR

@BAL

6

Blake Snell

CLE

@TEX

@TOR

TOR

7

Patrick Corbin

@COL

CHC

COL

@SDP

8

Justin Verlander

ARI

LAA

@BAL

-

9

Carlos Carrasco

@TBR

CHW

@CHW

@KCR

10

James Paxton

@LAA

@HOU

OAK

TEX

11

Corey Kluber

DET

BOS

@KCR

-

12

Chris Sale

TOR

NYM

@CLE

NYY

13

Zack Greinke

@COL

@HOU

COL

@SDP

14

Jack Flaherty

LAD

@ATL

MIL

@CHC

15

Jameson Taillon

@STL

KCR

@CHC

@CIN

16

Mike Clevinger

DET

BOS

@CHW

-

17

German Marquez

@SFG

@ARI

PHI

-

18

Stephen Strasburg

@PHI

@MIA

NYM

@COL

19

Zack Wheeler

@PHI

@WSH

MIA

-

20

David Price

TOR

@NYY

@CLE

NYY

21

Charlie Morton

ARI

SEA

@TOR

@BAL

22

Noah Syndergaard

@BOS

@PHI

ATL

MIA

23

Mike Foltynewicz

@SFG

STL

PHI

@PHI

24

Madison Bumgarner

COL

@STL

SDP

-

25

Miles Mikolas

PIT

LAD

SFG

@CHC

26

Luis Severino

@MIN

BOS

TBR

@BOS

27

Masahiro Tanaka

TOR

BOS

@TBR

@BOS

28

Cole Hamels

@WSH

@ARI

PIT

STL

29

Walker Buehler

@STL

COL

@ARI

-

30

Kyle Freeland

ARI

@LAD

PHI

WSH

31

Kyle Hendricks

MIL

CIN

@CHW

PIT

32

Luis Castillo

LAD

@MIL

@MIA

PIT

33

Eduardo Rodriguez

TOR

@NYY

BAL

NYY

34

Rich Hill

@STL

SDP

@ARI

-

35

Alex Wood

@STL

SDP

@SFG

-

36

J.A. Happ

BOS

BAL

@BOS

-

37

Jake Arrieta

MIA

@ATL

@COL

-

38

Derek Holland

ATL

@SDP

SDP

LAD

39

Nick Pivetta

WSH

NYM

@ATL

@COL

40

Jon Lester

@ARI

@CHW

STL

-

41

Jose Berrios

@KCR

@OAK

DET

-

42

Robbie Ray

@HOU

COL

LAD

-

43

Jon Gray

ARI

@LAD

@ARI

WSH

44

Rick Porcello

NYM

@CLE

BAL

-

45

Carlos Rodon

@KCR

@CLE

CLE

@MIN

46

CC Sabathia

TOR

BAL

@TBR

-

47

Kevin Gausman

WSH

STL

@NYM

@PHI?

48

Clay Buchholz

@COL

CHC

LAD

@SDP

49

Kyle Gibson

@KCR

@OAK

CHW

-

50

Dallas Keuchel

ARI

LAA

@TOR

-

51

Shane Bieber

@TBR

CHW

BOS

@KCR

52

Anibal Sanchez

@SFG

STL

PHI

@PHI

53

Joey Lucchesi

@SEA

SFG

@SFG

-

54

Steven Matz

MIA

@PHI

@WSH

MIA

55

Hyun-Jin Ryu

@CIN

COL

SDP

@SFG

56

Mike Fiers

@BAL

LAA

@SEA

@LAA

57

Joe Musgrove

@STL

KCR

MIL

@CIN

58

Tanner Roark

@PHI

@ATL

NYM

@COL

59

Chris Archer

@MIL

KCR

@CHC

@CIN

60

Dereck Rodriguez

COL

@STL

LAD

-

61

Matthew Boyd

@CLE

MIN

@MIN

@MIL

62

Mike Minor

@SDP

SEA

@SEA

-

63

Tyler Glasnow

CLE

@TEX

@TOR

NYY

64

Jakob Junis

MIN

@DET

CLE

-

65

Lucas Giolito

@BAL

CHC

@MIN

-

66

Zack Godley

@HOU

CHC

LAD

-

67

Jose Quintana

MIL

CIN

@CHW

PIT

68

Andrew Heaney

SEA

@OAK

TEX

-

69

Sandy Alcantara

@NYM

WSH

@WSH

@NYM

70

Wei-Yin Chen

@PHI

CIN

@WSH

-

71

Vince Velasquez

MIA

@ATL

@COL

ATL

72

Zach Eflin

MIA

NYM

@COL

ATL

73

Jhoulys Chacin

@CHC

CIN

@PIT

DET

74

Tyler Anderson

@SFG

@LAD

PHI

WSH

75

Trevor Richards

WSH

CIN

@NYM

-

76

Trevor Williams

@MIL

MIL

@CHC

-

77

Wade Miley

PIT

@PIT

DET

-

78

Austin Gomber

PIT

@ATL

SFG

@CHC

79

Michael Fulmer

@CLE

KCR

@MIN

-

80

Reynaldo Lopez

@BAL

CHC

CLE

-

81

Framber Valdez

@DET

SEA

LAA

@BAL

82

Tyler Skaggs

-

SEA?

@HOU?

OAK?

83

Sean Newcomb

WSH?

PHI?

@NYM?

-

84

Matt Harvey

@CHC

@MIL

KCR

-

85

Felix Pena

TEX

@OAK

@HOU

OAK

86

Julio Teheran

WSH

PHI

@NYM

-

87

Jaime Barria

SEA

@HOU

TEX

-

88

John Gant

LAD

@ATL

MIL

-

89

Wade LeBlanc

SDP

@HOU

@TEX

TEX

90

Chase Anderson

@CHC

CIN

@STL

DET

91

Edwin Jackson

@TBR

MIN

@SEA

-

92

Gio Gonzalez

PIT

CIN

@STL

-

93

Mike Leake

@LAA

@HOU

OAK

TEX

94

Jose Urena

@NYM

@PHI

CIN

@NYM

95

Trevor Cahill

@TBR

MIN

@LAA

-

96

Jake Odorizzi

NYY

@DET

DET

-

97

Matt Shoemaker

SEA

@OAK

TEX

OAK

98

Ivan Nova

@MIL

MIL

@CHC

-

99

Marco Gonzales

SDP

@LAA?

@TEX?

OAK?

100

Dylan Bundy

OAK

TOR

@BOS

HOU?

101

Zach Davies

PIT

@PIT

@STL

-

102

Lance Lynn

TOR

BAL

@TBR

-

103

Alex Cobb

OAK

CHW

@NYY

HOU

104

Mike Montgomery

CIN

@ARI

@PIT

STL

105

Anthony Desclafani

LAD

@MIL

@MIA

PIT

106

Andrew Suarez

ATL

@SDP

@STL

LAD

107

Aaron Sanchez

@BOS

@BAL

HOU

@TBR

108

Jacob Nix

SFG

@SFG

ARI

-

Nick Pollack

Founder of PitcherList.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

sdf

Comments


Frankie

The holy Angels trinity of Heaney, Barria and Pena have a very brutal schedule during the playoffs. Too bad I am already heavily invested in most leagues and without many options on the Wire. SEA, @OAK, @HOU, oh my!

Jaybird

Thanks so much Nick!!! So helpful as I’m on the doorstep of the championship in both my leagues, in no small part because of this site. Thank you thank you.

Steve

Hey Nick, so what combination of wOBA did you end up going with? Mostly full season but slightly skewed towards more recent data samples?

Nick Pollack

I think I did a special blend for each team. I ultimately think blanket wOBA over a period of time doesn’t do a full job. Some I put heavier weights on recent performance, others full season, based on believability of recent success.

jayh

NYM has a top 10 wOBA, top 5 wRC+, and the most runs scored in baseball over the last 30 days. I still think they’re a middling offense at best, but I’m not streaming against them the way I would vs. SFG, BAL, MIA, etc.

Thanks for this, btw. Very helpful stuff.

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